As Instapundit links to here, the entire US Senate cowed before our blogswarm post about Cinco de Porkbustero. Who knows, maybe the GOP has learned a lesson from their electoral spanking.
Fear our blog.
My friends: We did it. We weren't just marking time. We made a difference. We made the city stronger. We made the city freer, and we left her in good hands. All in all, not bad, not bad at all. -- Ronald Regan Farewell Address to the Nation --
Well, well: Porkbusters go international. Let's hope McConnell, Lott, Blunt and Boehner are reading this,
[w]e will account for every peso the citizens have given to the government. Transparency and accountability is the responsibility of every democratic government -- Felipe Calderon, Mexican President.However, it would be economically better for Mexican citizens were Calderon's gov'mint to cut marginal tax rates, cut the budget's rate of growth and cut overall spending. The salary reduction is the political equivalent of the Mexican government's putting the bow on a lump of Christmas coal. It does not change the gift, but only adds something that is sometimes unnecessary. Corrupt gov't is still corrupt gov't and graft is still graft. This is a start, but...
This makes me happy: my schadenfreude
"We've done our part. And as I walk off into the city streets, a final word to the men and women of the Reagan revolution, the men and women across America who for eight years did the work that brought America back.My friends: We did it. We weren't just marking time. We made a difference. We made the city stronger. We made the city freer, and we left her in good hands. All in all, not bad, not bad at all. -- Ronald Regan Farewell Address to the Nation --
Well, the election is over and my guy lost, big-time. He got walloped, while I did nothing over here. I could give a litany of reasons for bloggin so little, such as grad school, family, church, student-teaching, etc... but in the end, it was apathy, lethargy and a disappointment in what was happening and self-denial in watching the polls not move.
I blamed my guy, but now that everything election-wise is done, I see that it was GOP incompetence and probably I'm part of that. My guy's errors will be dealt with in another post. As for me, a conservative who refuses to blog is not the reason why anybody lost, especially because 1/2 of the people who visited my website (see the counter at the bottom) are spammers, the remaining 1/4 are visits from myself and the others are repeat visitors, so not many people are impacted or effected (affected?) by my opinions. Count me as one more anecdote demonstrating why the GOP lost support amongst its base and the independents. Drudge ran a story in the first week after the election that showed that the (R) party received around 27 million votes for Senate. Compare that to the nearly 65 million who voted for Bush. The reason nearly 40 million less voted was corruption, overspending and Iraq.
That being said, herewith follows some more anecdotes about problems I experienced in trying to help the GOP in the recent election. The GOP transmission contained more sand in the gears than fluid.
I tried to sign up for the State of Ohio Blogger Alliance (SOB) blogroll, got one e-mail that asked if I was from out of state, to which I said yes, and then nada. Either I'm a worse blogger than I want to admit or they didn't care. Another prominent Ohio Blogger demanded that any blogger on his blogroll be from Ohio. It was as if I saw the sign that said, "beware of dog, owner has a gun and no solicitations" and left. Certainly, I should be blogging more, as that is the nature of blogging, but when an in-state candidate needs funds and support, the last thing any political party should be doing is turning volunteers and opinion shapers away.
Here is another thing: One week before voting day (Oct 31) I signed up online with Michigan's Kent County GOP webpage to volunteer for everything in any way. I gave them my name, phone #, e-mail address, snail-mail address and clicked on every possible option, even the "mug those voting for your opponent" option. Disclosure: I did not volunteer to be an intern. KCGOP response: nada in the form of phone calls, phone messages, e-mail messages or snail mail.
I did get GOTV slips from the GOP in my postal mailbox, phone-calls and phone-messages from the MI GOP candidates, but nobody wanted my help. I also volunteered to be a precint delagate, but apparently I'm supposed to fill out some .pdf form. However, I never received any e-mail, automated or otherwise, telling me I had screwed up and needed to follow directis when I fill out forms. So I printed off a sample ballot for my wife and we voted to shoot doves in MI, but discovered that we would have to keep our recipe for shish-ka-dove on hold. We were anticipating using our really swell Ranch marinade and garlic baste in order to denderize the dove meat. Maybe next year.
To top it off, I e-mailed both Michigan Senators, Stabenow and Levin, about whether they were the person who put the porkbuster bill on hold, and Senator Levin respsonded saying no and then blah, blah, blah for a long paragraph. Senator Levin is not even up for reelection this year. No wonder the Democrats won.
In Ohio I signed-up to be on an e-mail list during the primaries for Blackwell, Petro & Strickland. I got on Strickland's e-mails right away and received 2-4 messages per day from him, but nothing from Petro and Blackwell. I tried again with both (R) men and this time got some info from Petro, but nothing from Petro. Finally Blackwell won so I resigned up with both he and Strickland, as I hadn't checked my e-mail for 30 days, so the computer mainframe stopped sending me stuff. Strickland is still sending press-releases, and I do not remember exactly, but it does seem to have taken awhile for Blackwell to send me an e-mail. Attention to detail is important, especially in a political transmission.
Again, the candidates lost on the issues, not my minor problems. However, the problems at the top seem to have trickled-down to all levels.
Well, that's enough about my problems, but, positively, I will make some formatting changes here in order to deal with various content that appeals to me, rather than strictly Ohio politics. I will be fortunate to make 3 posts a day, let alone 1 on some days, but we shall see.
An Aug 29 - Sept 5 Zogby Interactive online poll showcases JKB as surging. While the Rasmussen Report said that Blackwell was getting walloped 57 - 32, Zogby has JKB losing 47.5 -41.8. This represents a 20% change in position, +10% for JKB and - 10% for Strickland. If true, then JKB has roared back and the poll does not even consider his commanding debate victory.
However, Zogby's interactive online polls have a somewhat questionable methodology and lack the accuracy of his phone polls. Most people figure that he uses these polls as interregnum popularity measures, i.e, between his phone polls he needs the media attention and a way toe set himself apart from JKB. Thus, the poll could be surveying white collar business types who have greater access to the Internet. Business votes (R) more so than (D), so the result could be expected.
Regardless, the polls deserve watching because Blackwell seems to be heading upward.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
Steve Hoffman's post-debate commentary in the Sept. 8 Akron Beacon Journal merits consideration. He basically claims that debates have become so scripted and boring that he would rather have one candidate wildly accuse the other of secretly hiring homosexual sympathizers (see 1986 & Republican Rhodes' accusation of Democratic Celeste ). That part of his article can be ignored, since infamous campaigns differ from intense, involved campaign, but the part examining the debate has value. Hoffman criticizes that
[t]he candidates for governor stuck to the script, with Democrat Strickland bashing Republican Blackwell, Ohio secretary of state, for being part of a corrupt "Taft-Blackwell" administration.
Lame-duck Republican Gov. Bob Taft has some of the worst poll numbers ever seen. But he and Blackwell, while both Cincinnati Republicans, come from very different wings of the party. Mostly, the conservative Blackwell has given the moderate Taft a pain in the neck. But Strickland knows the charge will be effective in a year of growing discontent with all things Republican.
Blackwell went after Strickland, a six-term U.S. House member from Lisbon, by cherry-picking his votes on taxes, a common tactic. Blackwell is trying to hang Strickland as a tax-and-spend liberal, continuing a line of GOP attack on Ohio Democrats that began in 1984. Strickland avoided specifics on his plans for the future (which would invite a GOP cost analysis) and repeatedly denied that he would raise taxes if elected governor.
JKB has a new education ad up at YouTube (HT Right Angle Blog). I don't know if the ad is especially ground-breaking, but I love the fact that the add works for my 56K modem, downloading video and audio in a snap. I'm such a sucker for any political add, which is why McCain-Feingold bummed me out. There is nothing like Sept/Oct when each new ad labels the opponent as the spawn of rats. Oh well, the add is smooth and flows nicely, explaining the positive. it answers my criticism of their post-debate press releases.
It's possible I erred earlier in claiming the JKB Blog delayed its summary of the debate. I've been having some issues with Mozilla Firefox and its cache update each time I visit a site, and so have to hit refresh. Their detailed post explanation of Ted's tax record helps clear the air of TS issue warping.
The Club for Growth gives TS a zero rating and ONN nails Ted in a YouTube video for being a liberal rather than the moderate he claims to be.
The Ballot Box decisively evidences that JKB won the debate. Too bad JKB didn't claim such in the debate, but rather called it a first punch. Actually the important thing for the candidates to remember for the fourth debate is not to have the debate at noon or 1.
BB begins the post by noting " [h]aving had a chance to read about and review from today's [Ohio] gubernatorial debate...". The post time is 10:30 at night. This means that he and the other pundits were busy doing other things, and so only a few (Nix-guy) could live-blog the debate. Everything else was review, even on Sixers and The Corner. By the time of most posts, the usual after-work and after-school chaos drowned out the noise.
Somebody better tell the candidates, this is it, boys. It's all there is. This race is not the same race for state SOS or AG. This ain't a sweet potato(e?) - red potato(e?) kerfuffle. Throw your chips in and steam ahead. Like my old high-school cheer went
Stand up, be proud, say your name out loud, "I'm JKB, and here's where I stand."
Evening debates between 7 - 9 work the best, since the day's errands are done and many families are relaxing, thus allowing them to do the thinking required by the debates. Midday Cubbies and Tig's games play well to audiences, but that's because the blue collar worker can buy tickets, listen and still work, leave and stay up-to-date, get updates at break, etc... The while the white collar worker can buy box seat tickets, talk to the blue collar guys, switch the radio earpiece for the office phone's earpiece and still seeem to be working. Plus day games for MLB last three, not one hour.
Of course since JKB got first-sentence play fromthe AP, it means that he won big time. Strickland's second-fiddle status tried to link JKB & Taft, but failed since it's well-known that JKB strongly criticized Taft for increasing the sales tax.
JKB also focused the leadoff and first 1:30 of Ohio's Public Radio on taxes and Strickland's no-new-taxes-pledge. (Real Player).
In the end Blackwell dominated throughout, including his humurous one-liner at the end about the Springer-Taft relationship.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
The first debate between Strickland/Blackwell was held today at noon in Youngstown, OH, on an open topic. The WFMJ 21 news has a complete video of the event. (HT - Right Angle Blog)
Click on the Ohio News Network for a summary. The Headline
- Ohio Governor Candidates Argue Over Stands on Taxes -
favors JKB, since it lets the public know that JKB fought Taft's tax increases. The headline also puts Strickland on the defensive, since it gives wind to JKB's claim that Strickland plans to increase taxes. Furthermore, this tax exchange took place between minutes 9 - 15 out of the one hour debate. Thus a so-called neutral party votes for the (R) candidate.
The Cinncinati Enquirer Blog has a summary, repeating some of what's here. Their part about the protesters causes some humor, with important parts about taxes.
The Ballot Box analyzes the race in depth and it too focuses on the tax angle, pointing out that Club For Growth gave TS a rating of 0, worse than Nancy Pelosi.
TV Station WFMJ21 also focuses on the taxes angle, though they leave out Strickland's lack of pledge.
The State of the Union Blog also has numerous stories on Tax'n Ted and their failure to deny the truth of TS' tax increases.
Tune in on the 6th for tax and other analysis from the Blackwell v. Strickland blog.
The Nixguy.com blog also favors the taxes issue going to Strickland, with Strickland wilting under the big lights
Nixguy.com helpfully live-blogged the debate and the fashion show.
The Openers blog of (Cleveland) Plain Dealer busts TS for focusing on the way past of the wacko left netroots who try to blame JKB for throwing Florida 2000 to GWB. Uhh Ted, the talking points are devil-faced Katherine Harris selected rather than elected the President. They miss the taxes angle.
No other S.O.B. blogger posted anything on the debates by Tuesday midnight. Will post more as time allows and others catch up.
Negatively: A Townhall.com search of the blogs using the words Ohio and Blackwell produced no recent results, and nothing at all about the debates.
The Sixers blog entitled their brief summary of the debate Strickland - Brown debate coverage, though the follow up info gets JKB's name right and says that the latter man won. Perhaps as a make-up post Greg Pollowitz explains about JKB's and TS's use of YouTube and MySpace as well as telling about Blackwell's new blog www.TelltheTruthTed.com.
Pick a newspaper and they'll say the match was a draw: translation - the (R) candidate won. Remember the '92 presidential campaign when Bush stared at his watch and Perot was too short for the stool. Those were Clinton's big victories. Nothing here, which means JKB won round one.
Actually, the noon debate was payed attention to by very few, including those in the blog world. Too bad the debate was good.
Briefly: JKB said Strickland will raise taxes and TS said I'm the change & JKB = coingate + Taft.
The candidates debated the Iraq war, but ONN said nothing about it. Why not say anything about it, especially when the national security issue hurts (R) candidates and helps the (D) ones. Maybe, because Strickland lost that part of the debate too.
ONN is going to replay the debate @ 11 p.m.
Here is JKB's summary.
The salient items of his post are
And, in the "Mankind dies without Oxygen" type of headline, the Dayton Daily News posted a Sept. 4 story reporting that Labor Unions have thus far unanimously endorsed Ted Strickland. They have particulary supported him with their money, giving him nearly $700,000 in contributions, which equals about 8-9% of his total 8.5 million collected. The paper errs, saying that TS collected only $6.2 million.
The paper tries to criticize JKB by noting that he has not garnered any union endorsements while Taft did in 2002, but a different article notes that union membership roles are declining. This means JKB supports employment that increases jobs and wages, i.e., WalMart etc..., while TS supports business practices that go the way of the railroads, i.e, very few working at a very high pay-scale.
Interestingly Ohio has tried to enact right-to-work laws that don't demand union membership as a condition to employment. The unions hope this law departs to the political equivalent of hell. Yet the Supreme Court allows for conscientious objectors: employees who still pay union contributions, but do not partake of contract negotiations, yet they can't be fired for doing something different than the union. Another version of conscentious objectors allows both sides to decide to contribute the dues to an agreed-upon non-profit group.
IN the end, JKB has not followed the way of tax-increasing Taft & Strickland, but his own way to keep taxes low.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
There are more doubts about Strickland's leadership. Phillip Morris, associate editor of the (Cleveland) Plain Dealer's editorial page, sums up in 604 words, his page B9, August 29 op-ed by querying,
[w]ho really cares whether Strickland voted against a constitutional amendment that defined marriage as a union between a man and a woman? The far greater issue is, can the man lead? And on that score, he remains a mystery - and vulnerable, despite his lead in the polls
Strickland has yet to evidence anything approaching talented, senior-level leadership, either in his past or in his current uninspired and timid campaign for governor.
The way he has acquiesced to the Blackwell camp in the arrangements of debates, as well as his failure to advance a single original, creative solution to the myriad problems vexing the state, make him look like a back-of-the-packer who somehow ended up at the front of the herd.
Mark Gottlieb predicts in the August 16 Dayton Daily News on page A16 (commentary) about what will happen in the election.
At the point of Gottliebs editorial, Strickland was leading in the polls by double digits. So why be worried about Strickland losing? It implies two things, the first of which is nervousness about Strickland's true lead. The second is being able to show what weaknesses Strickland has overcome, which in this case are doubts in the voters minds should he lose.Making political predictions at this advanced stage of an election year is way too easy to be considered respectable work. So, herewith a longer-term prediction:If J. Kenneth Blackwell loses the election for governor, he will be back. But if Ted Strickland loses, he's done for, at least for high office.
JKB has shown his leadership skills again by setting up the debates. Even the opposition organ,
The (Cleveland) Plain Dealer notes in an August 28, page B7 editorial
[w]hen it comes to debate-rigging, Blackwell has called the shots and Strickland has let himself be led around by the nose. That glimpse of Strickland's leadership qualities ought to trouble every one of his supporters.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
Ted Strickland was busted on Friday, May 19, when he sidled into New York for a fund-raiser hosted by Hillary Rhodam Clinton. To show his deceptiveness, Strickland has said nothing. The May 24 article by Joe Hallet is worth reading in its entirety. It shows the liberal side of Strickland and how his conservativism on guns is fake. Remember the Clintons assaults on the NRA. Hallett writes
The support of Kerry and Clinton shows the true colors of Strickland: liberal blue-state. Which means no tax-cuts, more gov't spending and anti-abortion legislation.Democratic gubernatorial nominee Ted Strickland quietly slipped into New York City on Friday for a fundraiser hosted by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y.
Known for its openness, the Strickland campaign was unusually tightlipped about the event. Keith Dailey, Strickland campaign spokesman, said it was held at a private residence, but he declined to name the owner, saying only that "it's not anyone famous."
Dailey said about 100 people attended the fundraiser, but he would not say how much money was raised. Gubernatorial candidates can accept individual contributions of up to $10,000.
Clinton came to Ohio to raise money for Strickland's congressional re-election campaign in 1998, when she was first lady.
Saturday night, Strickland was the beneficiary of a fund raiser in Toledo headlined by Sen. John Kerry, of Massachusetts, the 2004 Democratic nominee for president.
Carlo LoParo, spokesman for J. Kenneth Blackwell, Strickland's GOP rival for governor, said Strickland "is a classic tax-and-spend liberal, so it doesn't surprise me that he's holding fundraisers with John Kerry and Hillary Clinton."
Blackwell's influence is showing in his poll gains but also in his getting laws passed, and only as a candidate for governor.
Jim Siegel reported in the Wedneday May 24, 2006 edition of the Columbus Dispatch, page A1, about how JKB influenced the the Ohi0 House, Senate and Governor's mansion to craft modified TEL legislation (more here and here). Siegel writes
The tension and rapid-fire movement finalized a deal between Blackwell and Republican legislative leaders. Blackwell will ask the petition committee to remove his TEL amendment from the ballot -- and the committee assured Gov. Bob Taft yesterday that would happen -- in exchange for lawmakers passing a less-restrictive bill.The people were supporting this bill enmasse and the politicos heard the voices. This is political victory for Blackwell, because he also heard the dissenting voices who moaned and complained that they would have millions and billions less funding dollars today than if Blackwel's bill had gone into effect some 15 - 20 years ago. Blackwell got his victory, and in a small sense so did the opponents.
In less than 26 hours, the House and Senate approved a Tax and Expenditure Limitation plan that would cap state government spending at 3.5 percent per year, or the combined rate of inflation plus population growth, whichever is greater.
It took only seven hours from start to Taft's signature for a bill giving the petition committee the power to pull the TEL amendment off the November ballot.
Taft had to sign the latter bill quickly because the petition committee must act to pull the TEL amendment off the ballot at least 60 days before the Nov. 7 election -- and the bill does not go into effect for 90 days.
The Dayton Daily News and AP promote a recent Unniversity of Cinncinati-sponosored poll that shows Blackwell gaining in the polls. This poll of 698 registered Ohio voters has Strickland leading 50 - 44 with 7% undecided/other and a 3.7% margin of error.
Both news networks err in two ways: First No numbers were given about how the poll was weighted, i.e., were there more (R), (D) or (I) voters; and second, neither story mentions that during the primary season JKB trailed TS by 12 points. Blackwell is moving up and it has only taken him about one month.
Plus, polls of registered voters are unreliable indicators of the final outcome. They generally favor (D) over (R), so perhaps JKB is closer than the poll indicates. Regardless of its accuracy, the poll does not help the candidate of either party. The poll was written to fill up column space.
The DDN spotlighted William Hershey's 5-26 story on page A4 and Julie Carr Smyth's AP story was posted at 5:10 pm EST.
update: NPR's Ohio edition gets it right, when Jo Ingles reports on Blackwell's gain (Real Player req). She does not however list by how many he has gained.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
The Dayton Daily News runs a May 10 editorial (free reg req) that hints at Blackwell being a racial sell-out and ends up giving him a good-boy, good-dog pat on the head. The opinion begins by noting that the primary race was free of racial overtones and issues. It notes that most people vote (D) because the (R) party does not address minority issues. After all the racial Nixon adopted the "Southern Strategy." The racist Republicans opposed affirmitive action. The racist Bush administration tried to limit law school quotas.
The money quote is the final few paragraphs in the editorial. The newspaper writes,
Mr. Blackwell might also lose votes because he's black, of course. But the race factor didn't seem to hurt him much in a primary where nearly all the voters were white and conservative.
Not long ago, it was conventional wisdom that black candidates did worse in elections than they did in polls, because some people who were planning to vote along racial lines wouldn't admit that to a pollster.
But that was back when black candidates were always Democrats.
It's a new era. That's a good thing. And the people who are grinding their teeth know that better than anybody.
Notice here the condescending congratulations the newspaper gives to the GOP and JKB. It is similiar to an owner who pats his dog on the head for fetching the newspaper. Doggy want a treat?
The race card is out after Blackwell's primary victory. The Plain Dealer (Cleveland) ran a May 10 column by Ohio University's Thomas Suddes, wherein Mr. Suddes claims, (via Lexis-Nexis)
[i]n the war to define Republicanism in Ohio, Blackwell ran best in counties most open to harangue-from-the-balcony appeals - of, say, a George C. Wallace in 1968 or of the Detroit Catholic "radio priest" Charles E. Coughlin in the 1930s. (Coughlin was one of the "Demagogues in the Depression," to cite historian David Bennett's study.)Yes, JKB's victory makes him a racist like presidential contender Wallace and radio host Coughlin. This historical parallel falls apart because JKB is running for governor, not president or Roman Catholic Priest. Secondly, Wallace was based in Atlanta and Fr. Coughlin was a national host (possibly). Mr. Suddes reasoning is more full of DNC talking-points than any worthwhile analysis.
[i]n 1968, no big nonslave state gave Wallace a bigger share of its presidential vote (12 percent, one in eight votes) than Ohio did. And Coughlin's 1936 proxy (William Lemke) ran better in Ohio than [he did] nationally.Again take note that JKB is not running as a national candidate but as a statewide candidate for governor. The comparisons continue to decay. Mr. Suddes should have found a governor's candidate who campaigned similiar to JKB for the reasoning to work. He did not. He failed.
An AP report (via Lexis-Nexis) on May 8 stongly hints that Ohio's black state Treasurer Jenette Bradley lost because she is black and female. Her white opponenet Sandra O'Brien toured with JKB for the campaign.
When Bradley said, "Things like race and gender, they can play both ways... Obviously so, since Ken won and I lost," she strongly implied that her race and gender hurt her, but helped JKB. (By the way did you know that Hitler was a racist?)
But wait a second, it turns out again that issues and principle swayed the voters. From the get-go O' Brien focused on the differences. O'Brien e-mailed on Day 1,
"[w]ith regards to the social issues, I am pro-life. My opponent is pro-choice. I am a National Rifle Association member and support the Right of all Americans to bear arms. According to published reports, my opponent was against concealed carry in Ohio."Oops for the AP. Once again (R) voters chose the candidate who agreed with them on the issues of life and guns. Principle over politics. Gender and race had nothing to do with the choice for treasurer.
Best Easter Message ever seen on the road sign of a church/school:
FUNERAL CANCELLED.
HE IS RISEN!
Presenting: results from race for Rep. Duke Cunningham's 50th District seat
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
JKB leads JP by a 46% - 32% margin, with 22% undecided says a Survey USA poll. The margin of error is 4.8% The T.V.-station-sponsored vote surveyed 436 Likely (R) voters and found that JKB leads in every
age group,
income bracket,
region and
urban/suburban/rural section.
He leads in the
Conservative vote,
male vote,
any college vote
graduated college vote and
post-college training vote.
He trails by
1% in the chick vote, and
4% in the no-college education vote.
Petro wins the moderate and liberal GOP vote. In order to have the slightest change at victory, Petro must win 18 of every 22 (80%) independent voters to have even the smallest chance of pulling ahead. Since the independent usually splits between 50-50 and 70-30 one way or the other, Petro is pretty well doomed. A 66 - 23 split leaves Petro losing by a 53 - 46 margin.
SurveyUSA's methodology convolutes its poll techniques in a phrase only a poll-junkie could love
In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy.
Translated into plain English this means that 95% of the time, the poll is 100% accurate, within the margin of error. 5% of the time, Daffy Duck might win.
Here's, instead, to hoping for a Bugs Bunny/Donald Duck dream ticket. Bugs is a character, which a President needs to be, and Donald is the perfect VP: he's less prone to rage than Daffy, more prone to hard work and a family man at that since he mentors his 3 nephews Huey, Dewey, and Louie.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.A new Democrat Poll shows Maryland Republican, Michael Steele, getting as much as 44% of the black vote in his run for the US Senate seat of Maryland's Paul Sarbannes.
When Steele is matched up against a generic DNC candidate, he gets 22% of the black vote, and in the '02 election he received 13% of the vote. In all three cases he is trending ahead of GWB by 2%, 11%, and 33%, respectively.
The WaPo got a copy from the Democrats. The number of those polled was 489 but no margin of error was mentioned. Watch for more of the same to happen in Ohio. Almost persuaded, but the trending is hopeful.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
Tonight the Cleveland Indians take on the ChiSox in the opening game for MLB.
I predict the Indians will lose by a score of 6 - 4. The SouthSiders have added a pitcher and JimThome as a slugger. Since Thome played so long for the Indians, he will be motivated both to beat his old team and having spent most of his career hitting AL pitching, he will play like a fish-in-water.
Keep uptodate on live Flash updates at ESPN or CBS. (Javascript required)
CBS has a way better setup. ESPN blows in MLB scoring
Wacky predictions:
1) One fan will be arrested for streaking.
2) Illegal Immigrants will riot.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
Blackwell is beating Petro 39% - 28% with 33% undecided. The A.P. published the Columbus Dispatch's mail-in poll of 2,874 Republican and 2,894 Democrats, all of whom were Registered Voters. The margin of error is 2%. The full poll also looked at the remaining races.
There are problems with the poll. First, polling Registered Voters is less accurate than likely voters.
Second, there are no idependents and the poll should be changed to reflect reality: about 35% (R), 35%(D), and 30% Ind. Third, a phone poll, not a mail-in survey, is more accurate than a mail-in poll when it comes to measuring accurately the voting trends. At home a potential voter can wait and wait, whereas on voting day as on the phone the decision is split-second: I choose candidate A. A voter has minutes, not days to complete a ballot. Change these three characteristics and the sentiments of the voters will be more accurate. The poll is a Good star tbut be wary about reading too much into it. The Dispatch also defended its techniques. There is more statistical stuff for poll-wonks
Blackwell's almost insurmountable lead is a main reason why he will not debate Petro. Plus he is keeping his powder dry until the last few weeks of the season. Plus the voters already know who is the conservative candidate and who is a RINO.
( l-r) Ted Strickland(D) and Bryan Flannery(D) lunch with Jim Petro(RINO) at the Canton Forum on Wed 3-22-06. (courtesy Daniel Hockensmith of Kent State's 89.7 WKSU)
*Note: File is large @ 616 KB
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
Lyn Nofziger, conservative stalwart and Ronald Reagan aide, died today, Mon., March 27 2005 in Falls Church, VA. He was 81 or 71.
Read more in Lynn's obit.
HT: NRO's corner - K.J. Lopez
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
Jim Petro sure hints that he wants to bolt into the waiting arms of Democratic party. Wanting to be Republican as opposed to being conservative is one thing, but not even wanting to be with the Republican party is quite a different thing, and a bad one at that.
Here is photographic evidence: ( l-r) Ted Strickland(D) and Bryan Flannery(D) lunch with Jim Petro(D) at the Canton Forum on Wed 3-22-06. (courtesy Daniel Hockensmith of Kent State's 89.7 WKSU)
*Note: File is large @ 616 KB
This is almost as bad a photo as this C-Span photo of Debbie Stabenow's "Dangerously Incompetent" gaffe.
Oops. She just lost the election. And so did Petro!
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
*Update: Lessons learned from the tournament:
a) The state of Ohio laid an egg - no team made it past the 2nd round.
b) The Big Ten totally sucked it up - see above. RPI is no help
c) My final 4 was UConn, UCLA, Duke, Boston College.
d) Ignore the East Coast hype - Duke has gone to the last 9 Sweet 16's only to lose 5 out of the last 7.
e) Iowa blows chunks.
f) Should seen that B.C. would lose to a very athletic 'Nova team.
g) Shoulda been seduced by the 4 MVC teams in the tourney, not the six Big 10 teams.
h) your one-stop for the NIT.
Here's a Big Dance bracket:
Because there is more to life than politics, we present the following analysis of team prospects for March Madness Bracketology. Ohio could get 2, maybe 3 teams into the tourney. If a few more win their tourneys than look for better representation in the NCAA's, else the remaining 5 - 7 teams will be in the NIT.
If I missed any teams let me know. We have also put in Strength of Schedule rankings,
The 3/21/05 Akron-Beacon Journal editorializes about JKB's TEL. The first paragraph coorectly summarizes the TEL's thrust, but the 2nd-paragraph's analysis strikes out. The editorial reads,
Blackwell's amendment would reduce budgeting at all levels of government to this formula: a spending increase of 3.5 percent a year or the rate of population growth and inflation, whichever is greater. To go beyond those limits would require voter approval.
That sounds reasonable enough. But from 1996 to 2005, actual rates of state spending exceeded the TEL limits in all years except 2003. In most years, because of low inflation and low population growth, the TEL limit would have been set at 3.5 percent.
The web-site's First Pinocchio Award Winner , James P. Trakkas has dropped out of his political race. He will no longer be Secretary of State. We express our disappointment that this blog was not mentioned as the reason. Apparently we are not ornery enough.
Goes to show: we know how to pick 'em.
There are thus far Five Pinocchio award winners.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
Read the Associated Press (AP), Dayton Daily News (DDN), Cleveland Plain Dealer (CPD), and The Columbus Dispatch (TCD) to get the impression that Blackwell is runnin' real scar'd of Petro by refusing to debate him publicly. The CPD put Reginald Field's 552-word article on page A1 of its Friday 3/24/06. The DDN put the William Hershey's 436-word article on page B1 of its Friday, March 24, 2006 edition. TCD seems to have placed Joe Hallet's 340-word article on its website but does not in its paper. The AP's 222-word links Blackwell with rejecting the non-partisan City-Club (via Lexis-nexis).
Contra these publications, the money quote in DDN comes from John Green, political scientist & head of Akron University's Bliss Institute of Applied Politics -
There's very little to gain from a debate and there's always a possibility they'll make a mistake and give the other candidate a chance to get back in (emphasis added).
Whatever candidate is behind tends to want debates because it gives them a chance to score points and catch up... Front-runners tend to want to avoid debates because there isn't enough to gain... And the perception is that [Blackwell, CPD] is ahead (emphasis added, EIC).
Claude Allan is a black conservative traitor, writes Erin Aubry Kaplan in the LA Times (free reg. req.), and he stole because he's black. Expect Blackwell to get the same treatment from the media.
Eugene Volokh dstroys the barely-concealed racism of Kaplan. Kaplan's piece inadvertently lets the world know that she is just another patronizing liberal.
Eugene Lindgren examines the number of black conservatives and concludes that the number is around 30% - 45%. He also reports that blacks are social, but not economic, conservatives. The key stas come at the end of the article. Lindgren writes
In general, however, African American conservatives seem to be somewhat more like other African-Americans than like other conservatives, but things vary a lot depending on the issue. Indeed, 57% of African American conservatives report being Democrats, compared to only 10% who view themselves as Republicans. Another 4% of black conservatives are independents who lean Republican.
Here's what happens when a Republican who is conservative and black runs for office.
The Washington Post hides the following Thur 3/16/06 story of John Wagner on page B4: Lauren B. Weiner, a staff member for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Comittee (DSCC), will be indicted by federal prosecutors for fradulently obtaining the credit report of Maryland's Lt. Gov Michael A. Steele.
Ms. (Mrs.?) Weiner got the document while doing opposition research on Mr. Steele. The Republican Steele is running to replace retiring Democrat Senator Paul Sarbannes, co-sponsor of the economically bad, and post-Enron legislation Sarbannes-Oxley. The law has not only increased accounting & auditing costs for public companies but also discouraged foreign compines from paying the entry fee to list on the NYSE. They list instead on London's stock exchange.
Do not be surprised if the same to happen to Blackwell.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
Mark Noe of the Columbus Dispatch writes an article both for and against the privacy of public records. The article posits the thesis that Montgomery's audit records of the Noe-BWC-coin scandal should be public as opposed to their current law-protected, private status.
Read for another reason why government is not the solution but the problem.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
Peddling influence seems to be a way of life in Ohio: first former speaker Householder; then Taft; next Petro; and, now Blackwell??
JKB accused Petro of shakedown techniques on Feb 20 by alleging that after Petro fired some anti-Petro law firms because they would not contribute to his campaign, he turned around and gave the work to firms who had contributed $1.6 million to him. Blackwell claimed that his own campaign had never accepted money from these no-bid contracts, but that if his own campaign did, his own campaign would return the money if Petro went first.
Two days later in a "published report" Blackwell changed his story and said that he had received some money but that it was without Petro's arm-twisting technique. Some 22 days later on March 12th Mark Niquette of the Columbus Dispatch reported on page A1 that Blackwell's contributions came to $102,300 dollars since 1999.
The story also criticizes Blackwell for having spent more than a million dollars contracting out un-bid contracts. This is old recycled news. The only new facts are that Blackwell spent x dollars between n different contractors, while other politicians have spent y dollars between m different contractors.
Sadly for the tax-payer No-bid contracts are standard government practice. That the practice wastes tax-dollars is true enough, but that this way of business is limited to Blackwell is not. Thus, Blackwell's TEL ammendment is needed in order to starve the government of its pork
The story wants you to believe that Blackwell's past claims are more of the soap-box variety, rather than the high moral ground type. Both this story and the AP summary ignore that Blackwell revised his absolutist position "I never took contributions" two, that is 2, days later. The only new facts are how much Blackwell received.
The Dispatch doesn't seem to have posted the story to its website yet. More to follow as links appear (via Lexis-nexis). The story will be overshadowed by March Madness.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
We're a bit late, but back on January 16, 2006 Congressional Quarterly analyzed Ohio, and said that things were down for the Ohio GOP and up for the DNC. The reasons were Abrahamoff lobbying scandal, Taft golf convictions and GOP apathy which caused a Democrat almost to win.
They looked at the governor's race, the senator's race and Ney's congressional seat and came up with this quote
“"So you have all of these things working together, and I believe that leads some Democrats to say that now is the time to take on a Republican,"” said Herb Asher, a political scientist at Ohio State University.
Ken Blackwell wants to give away your private information!! This charge is what the Democrats hope will stick, when it comes to the SSNs on Blackwell's SoS website.
As Blackwell has pointed out, the option to put the numbers on their was voluntary. However, most people were responsible and kept the SSN off the form. Banks and other financial institutions took the option and put that number on. With responsibility and choice comes consequences; the money businesses should not have put the number on.
Ohio's Senate and House are rightfully looking to change the law with the biparitisan Senate Bill 283 requiring that no public record may have an SSN on it. One reason why is the Ohio GOP is no doubt hoping to avoid political fallout from invasion of privacy. Let us also hope they want to stop privacy invasion.
That the SSN would be private and never public was the promise of FDR back during the introduction of Social Security. I think it should be federal law the SSN shall never be on any application, and that its use requires permission ala private medical records that doctors and hospitals want to see.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
The Pitsburgh Post-Gazette has another article how the GOP is reuniting the party of Abraham Lincoln. There is a profile of Pensylvannia's Lynn Swann, Maryland's Michael Steele, Ohio's Jenette Bradley for state Treasurer, and of course JKB.
There is no new information, just a note that Blackwell labelled Petro as having "ethics worse than Taft's."This means that Blackwell's message is sinking in.
Then today Betty Montgomery complains about and compliment JKB because his adds have sucessfully thrown Petro off-message. On page D9 the Columbus Dispatch records her lamenting not only that surprise, surprise, liberal/moderate Republicans aren't liked that much, but also that
I will never underestimate Ken Blackwell's strategic sense. He has kept Jim Petro off-message with these ads. Jim can't talk about what he wants to be because he is defending who he is.
Elanor Clift, Newsweek columnist, rows left again. She writes a left-leaning article that recycles the same ol' DNC talking points: The race is the Dems to lose; GOP is anti-gay; Blackwell is a bible-thumper; etc...
Read more of Clift "Claven's" article on the MSNBC website.
And of course Blackwell gets criticism for leaving the DNC plantation:
His political rivals are looking for ways to expose him as a black Elmer Gantry, a huckster with no core convictions.
Fairfield County (SW Central Ohio) has endorsed Blackwell supporter Steve Elsea for County Commissioner. The County also reprimanded sitting commissioner Mike Kiger by labelling him "not recommeded."
Mary Beth Lane of the Columbus Dispatch, D7, provides this brief biography of Elesea:
Elsea is a Canal Winchester resident who owns an energy-management business, is on the county GOP executive committee and is county chairman for Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell's gubernatorial campaign.
I hadn't wanted to get into this whole ménage à trois of Petro-lawyers-FBI. It seemed to belong unto the more boring aspect of campaigns, the mud-slinging type, wherein each side plays the little boy's game of one-upmanship: you're a meany; you're a double meany head; ... you're a meany head infinity x infinity with a cherry on top. But there is much here.
Blackwell's TV adds alledge that the FBI is investigating Petro's supposed shakedown of some lawyer firms who refused to contribute money to his campaign.
Well, on Feb 21 in the Cleveland Dispatch'spage A1, Joe Hallet reports (via Lexis Nexis)
Last week, a spokeswoman for Petro acknowledged that he had stripped $2 million in annual legal work from three Akron-area firms aligned with Summit County GOP Chairman Alex Arshinkoff, an avowed Petro enemy. An Akron lawyer close to Arshinkoff, Jack Morrison, has accused Petro of threatening to terminate a state contract with his firm if Morrison didn't pony up campaign cash. Petro denied the allegation and argued that it is part of an Arshinkoff vendetta. The FBI has made inquiries into Morrison's allegation.
As reported by the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the GOP State Central Committee will not publicize a straw poll of committee members showing a gargantuan Blackwell victory, 51 - 16. The poll breaks down this way: first, there is a 40-11 approval of the Blackwell/Petro ticket, rather than Petro/Blackwell ticket; and, 11 favored Blackwell alone, while 5 favored Petro alone.
The fallout is that the president of the NE Ohio region quite because the executive director, Chris McNulty, whose wife is a fundraiser for Jim Petro, commanded that the results from being published. President Karl Raszewski charged
"If Chris had . . . let everyone see the results, Petro would have likely left the race within 48 hours."
The AP's recent election analysis of Ohio contradicts the claim that Strickland is the man to beat and his lead will put the Dems back into office. In short his candidacy is a Trojan horse for the Dems and Ohio's voters: a seemingly nice gift with great numbers that will be slowly picked apart during political battle. His own internal problems, congressional record and vision for Ohio, will be the soldiers that harm him.
Peruse the websites of Ted Strickland and Jim Petro and you'll soon discover that both men are ahead of Blackwell in the Polls, Strickland by 12% and Petro by 2%, respectively. Strickland even titles his article that way, thus ignoring Mr. Petro as a viable GOP candidate.
However, the WCPO-9 article points out that very few people know Strickland's name. Democtratic political consultant Jim Ruvolo sketches out the field this way,
"Ask 10 people about Strickland around the state and you're going to get nine blank stares."
In the intra-party slugfest over who would or would not be Ted Strickland's running mate (Lee Fisher, Peter Lawson Jones or Barbara Sykes), Sykes of Akron agreed to run for state auditor. Fisher is now the VP.
Rather than be the party of the Puritaa work ethic, there is a hint of reverse racism in the selecting the Democratic ticket. As recorded by the Columbus Dispatch, Ms. Sykes summed up her situation thus, "Let's face it, I am on this ticket because I am a minority."
The DNC still loves affirmative action rather than achievement out of hard work.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
Two different reports have pointed out that Blackwell's supporters are energized while Petro's campaign is risk-averse, unwilling to take controversial and principled stands.
One article describes Blackwell as "fiery" while Petro is taking a wait-and-see attitude towards Blackwell's media adds. The Dayton Daily News (free reg req) quotes the analysis of William Binning, political scientist at Younstate State U: Petro's staff "[a]re going to want to see how much damage" was done."
Another Dayton Daily News article analyzes that Blackwell's religious and socially conservative base are "more energetic" than Petro's "traditional Republican voters" who, after years of total GOP control of state government, might be kind of worn out." William Hershey rightly backs into the notion that the former NARAL-endorsed Petro (.pdf file) is not as socially conservative as his website claims that he is.
What will happen is that Blackwell will win the nomination and his supporters will bring along with them Petro's voters. Thus JKB, who trails Strickland (47 - 35) by a larger margin than Petro (44 - 37) will sweep into the lead with his energized base.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
The cow-bells have spoken: Blackwell for GOP nominee. In Ohio's only open endorsement covention the voters of MIAMI county (NW Ohio) elected JKB by a landslide of approximately 262 - 218 (or 54.47% - 45.53%) at least.
Tony Covington, Miami's convention chair, desribed the event as "carry[ing] with it statewide ramifications."
Read more about the grand old party at the Dayton Daily News (free reg req).
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
While speaking to the the City Club of Cleveland IRS Commissioner Mark W. Everson criticized churches for making "a disturbing amount of intervention" in politics. He declined to state whether the IRS is investigating Rev. Rod Parsley's World Harvest (mega)Church & Rev. Russell Johnson's Fairfield Christian (mega)Church. On Jan. 16 thirty-one Ohio pastors protested the tax-exempt status of these churches.
This blog has expressed hestitation here and here about the close relationship status between churches and politicians. I again urge caution. Religion has as a constituent part the emotion of certainty, which is one element of hope, which is one element of faith. Knowledge is other element of faith. Emotions, however, increase and decrease. Should emotions be at a low point, a party in power could find itself as a party out of power.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
Joe Blundo in the Cleveland Dispatch's Feb 23rd 2006 edition, page F1, blames the law for Wilson's error. He writes (via Lexis-Nexis)
The only news out of the Democratic camp that even comes close involves not Ted Strickland, the front-runner for governor, but Charles Wilson, the man who would like to have Strickland's congressional seat.
Wilson seems to have failed to make the ballot because he didn't get enough valid signatures. Why? The congressional district is so ridiculously gerrymandered he can't tell who lives in it.
By implication the Republicans were in control of redistricting Strickland's seat (D- 6th) and so are to blame for this mishap. No doubt George Will is correct to notice the problems with a 98% incumbent return rate for the '02 and '04 elections. The district's borders are actually quite sensible, since the 6th borders pretty much all of SE Ohio.
Notice also how the press has turned hostile (see Pat Buchanan), as for example earlier in the Article Blundo mocks the convictions of Blackwell and the formerly NARAL-endorsed Petro for their positions on abortion. Blundo writes
Until the other day, Petro and Blackwell had largely busied themselves staking out ever-more-extreme positions to win the favor of religious conservatives.
So Blackwell revealed that he opposes abortion even when a woman's life is in danger.
And Petro said he opposes it even in cases of rape.
And Blackwell announced he would not allow abortion even if a woman were impregnated by space aliens.
And Petro said he is against even Diane Keaton's character having an abortion in The Godfather Part II.
And on and on.
Blundo also criticizes Blackwell's recent adds for pointing out the proverbial 800 lb gorilla in the room. Contra-Blundo voters don't forget dishonesty. If Blackwell and the GOP do not condemn the chicanery in Congress and Ohio and provide solutions to the problems, voters will reward the party-in-power with early retirement.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
Here's some new information the AP posted this morning about the Strickland's (D - 6th) gaffe (via Lexis-Nexis):
Key Democratic House candidate in Ohio doesn't qualify for ballot
by David Hammer
National Democrats' best hope to hold onto a key U.S. House seat in Ohio failed to collect enough signatures to qualify for the party primary. The Columbiana County elections board ruled Wednesday in Lisbon, Ohio, that state Sen. Charlie Wilson had only 46 valid signatures on his petition for candidacy, four shy of the 50 he needed to qualify for a key race.
"In good faith, I submitted more than enough valid signatures to the board of elections, so I am obviously disappointed with this decision today," Wilson said. "I am exploring a number of options and am confident that, in November, I will be on the ballot and I will win the privilege and responsibility of representing Ohio families in Congress."
The ruling is potentially devastating for Democrats in an Appalachian seat that had been a stronghold but has been targeted by national Republicans as their best chance to pick up a seat. Popular Democratic incumbent Rep. Ted Strickland is leaving to run for governor and Democrats had thrown their support behind Wilson....
On the Net:
Charlie Wilson campaign: http://www.charliewilson.com
Bob Carr campaign: http://www.bobcarr.org
**Update: Jack Torry of the The Columbus Dispatch has a similar take.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.The AP is reporting that Charlie Wilson, the man picked by Democrats to replace outgoing Ohio representative Ted Strickland (D - 6th), failed to get enough valid signatures to enter the primary. The final tally was 46 valid, which is 4 short of the required 50.
This means that in the 2006 Congressional Elections, the GOP will probably pick up Ted Strickland's seat. The law being what it is, Wilson could in a Rube Goldbergian way still find himself running in the fall election as either a Democrat, Independent, or write-in.
This is Strickland's first major gaffe and does not present his organizing skills in a positive light. If this is how his staff helps friends, I wonder how he will work with his enemies? Furthermore, if Strickland stumbles so badly over something so simple as gathering 50 signatures, it does not appear that will be able to manage the state bureacracy or pass laws.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
Blackwell's adds have hit their mark. He is getting all kinds of free press from Bennett's statement, Taft's reaction, Petro's delayed statement, National Review's reaction, and free press mentionings.
Blackwell opens a door for his opponents and they walk right into it. His adds aim to separate him from Petro, Taft (approval rating 16%) and the Ohio GOP. Taft, Bennett, and Petro willingly did just that.
Petro's misleading statement about the whole voting machine problem, which stems back to Bush v. Gore in 2000, fails to take into account this long story here, wherein Blackwell was about the only Ohio politician laboring to fix the system.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
Ken Blackwell has new ethics-themed anti-Petro adds out: He produced a 30-sec TV add and a 60-sec radio add. Joe Hallett on page A1 of the Columbus Dispatch's Feb 21st edition gathered together the GOP reaction.
Governor Taft's spokesman criticized the adds as "smear tactics". Ohio GOP chair Bennett issued a statement denouncing the adds as "attack adds", "burning down the house", " negative campaigning", having no "respect for winning on ideas and vision", "guttural politics" and "politically motivated".
Being the subject of the attack, Petro's spokesmen made the obligatory retort lambasting the adds as "the most deceptive and vile... ever" & "lies." His media response can be found, well, it can't because Petro is not running any response adds. This non-response answer will harm Petro.
Blackwell stood firm and kept his cool. He not only described Petro as "a clear and present danger to the health and well-being of the Ohio GOP ticket," but also that his modus operandi during the campaign would be "I believe... pursuing a path of truth."
Notice that neither Taft nor Bennett describe the adds as false. That is important becaue it means that the adds are true.
I think the adds were too strong and that until Petro is indicted, the message should be "Petro: just another Taft clone:" and "Do really want another four years of Taft?" After all, once the anti-Taft sentiment has been burned up in the primaries, Blackwell might be unable to use the state's contra-Taft feelings in the fall's general election.
I always think that political adds are as much satirical humor as verity, taking enjoyment in a fine production of either party.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
On Feb 10 the GOP of Hamilton County (Ohio's soutwestern most county & home to Cincinnati) voted overwhelmingly to endorse Blackwell for Governor. Read more about the event and Petro's weak presentation here.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
The profile that started it all is available at the City Journal. Steve Malanga paints a colorful portrait of Reagan's unlikely heir, who bills himself as "Jesse Jackson's worst nightmare":
I am not just an economic being. I have a wider set of beliefs that I follow. With me, you’ll always know what you are getting. You’ll always know where I stand.This detailed biography maps out Blackwell's life as follows:
Born in the projects of Cincinnati to a meat-packer who preached the work ethic and a nurse who read to him from the Bible every evening, Blackwell has rejected the victimology of many black activists and opted for a different path, championing school choice, opposing abortion, and staunchly advocating low taxes as a road to prosperity.
