Strickland's Trojan horse lead

The AP's recent election analysis of Ohio contradicts the claim that Strickland is the man to beat and his lead will put the Dems back into office. In short his candidacy is a Trojan horse for the Dems and Ohio's voters: a seemingly nice gift with great numbers that will be slowly picked apart during political battle. His own internal problems, congressional record and vision for Ohio, will be the soldiers that harm him.

Peruse the websites of Ted Strickland and Jim Petro and you'll soon discover that both men are ahead of Blackwell in the Polls, Strickland by 12% and Petro by 2%, respectively. Strickland even titles his article that way, thus ignoring Mr. Petro as a viable GOP candidate.

However, the WCPO-9 article points out that very few people know Strickland's name. Democtratic political consultant Jim Ruvolo sketches out the field this way,

"Ask 10 people about Strickland around the state and you're going to get nine blank stares."

With this honest election assessment, the following conclusions can be drawn:

1. Strickland's lead is soft since much of his lead is from an anti-GOP bounce in the polls.
2. Democrats are united around anybody who might be a winner, especially since they have not won a governor's race in 20 years and controlled the mansion in 15 years. Governor Richard Celeste last won in 1986 and his term ended January 14, 1991.
3. Governor Taft has an approval rating of 16% and is disliked so much that in the Bob Portman-special election his bad ratings almost gave the election to Paul Hackett, an anti-Iraq War candidate. He was even booed off the stage way back Sept, 2004 when he made a brief appearance with GWB's swing through the state.

Once the general election begins Stricklands's negatives will increase and positives decrease. Consider that he has so little name recognition even after being in office since the GOP split their '92 vote between Bush-Perot,and it becomes clearer that people flock to him for reasons other than his policy positions. They like him because he is not-GOP, not-Taft, and the Dems have been not-governor for so bloomin' long.

Strickland's other problem arises in conjunction with the fact that his many terms in office will provide ample opportunity for opposition research to drive up his negatives, down his positives, and cost him the governor's race.

The Dems may take his gift as titular head of the Ohio Dems, but this present will be a Trojan Horse harmful to them and Ohio's voters.

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The Democratic Plantation

In the intra-party slugfest over who would or would not be Ted Strickland's running mate (Lee Fisher, Peter Lawson Jones or Barbara Sykes), Sykes of Akron agreed to run for state auditor. Fisher is now the VP.

Rather than be the party of the Puritaa work ethic, there is a hint of reverse racism in the selecting the Democratic ticket. As recorded by the Columbus Dispatch, Ms. Sykes summed up her situation thus, "Let's face it, I am on this ticket because I am a minority."

The DNC still loves affirmative action rather than achievement out of hard work.

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Blackwell energizes base

Two different reports have pointed out that Blackwell's supporters are energized while Petro's campaign is risk-averse, unwilling to take controversial and principled stands.

One article describes Blackwell as "fiery" while Petro is taking a wait-and-see attitude towards Blackwell's media adds. The Dayton Daily News (free reg req) quotes the analysis of William Binning, political scientist at Younstate State U: Petro's staff "[a]re going to want to see how much damage" was done."

Another Dayton Daily News article analyzes that Blackwell's religious and socially conservative base are "more energetic" than Petro's "traditional Republican voters" who, after years of total GOP control of state government, might be kind of worn out." William Hershey rightly backs into the notion that the former NARAL-endorsed Petro (.pdf file) is not as socially conservative as his website claims that he is.

What will happen is that Blackwell will win the nomination and his supporters will bring along with them Petro's voters. Thus JKB, who trails Strickland (47 - 35) by a larger margin than Petro (44 - 37) will sweep into the lead with his energized base.

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Blackwell's groundswell continues

The cow-bells have spoken: Blackwell for GOP nominee. In Ohio's only open endorsement covention the voters of MIAMI county (NW Ohio) elected JKB by a landslide of approximately 262 - 218 (or 54.47% - 45.53%) at least.

Tony Covington, Miami's convention chair, desribed the event as "carry[ing] with it statewide ramifications."

Read more about the grand old party at the Dayton Daily News (free reg req).

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More Free Exercise Questions

While speaking to the the City Club of Cleveland IRS Commissioner Mark W. Everson criticized churches for making "a disturbing amount of intervention" in politics. He declined to state whether the IRS is investigating Rev. Rod Parsley's World Harvest (mega)Church & Rev. Russell Johnson's Fairfield Christian (mega)Church. On Jan. 16 thirty-one Ohio pastors protested the tax-exempt status of these churches.

This blog has expressed hestitation here and here about the close relationship status between churches and politicians. I again urge caution. Religion has as a constituent part the emotion of certainty, which is one element of hope, which is one element of faith. Knowledge is other element of faith. Emotions, however, increase and decrease. Should emotions be at a low point, a party in power could find itself as a party out of power.

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Media blames law

Joe Blundo in the Cleveland Dispatch's Feb 23rd 2006 edition, page F1, blames the law for Wilson's error. He writes (via Lexis-Nexis)

The only news out of the Democratic camp that even comes close involves not Ted Strickland, the front-runner for governor, but Charles Wilson, the man who would like to have Strickland's congressional seat.

Wilson seems to have failed to make the ballot because he didn't get enough valid signatures. Why? The congressional district is so ridiculously gerrymandered he can't tell who lives in it.

By implication the Republicans were in control of redistricting Strickland's seat (D- 6th) and so are to blame for this mishap. No doubt George Will is correct to notice the problems with a 98% incumbent return rate for the '02 and '04 elections. The district's borders are actually quite sensible, since the 6th borders pretty much all of SE Ohio.

Notice also how the press has turned hostile (see Pat Buchanan), as for example earlier in the Article Blundo mocks the convictions of Blackwell and the formerly NARAL-endorsed Petro for their positions on abortion. Blundo writes

Until the other day, Petro and Blackwell had largely busied themselves staking out ever-more-extreme positions to win the favor of religious conservatives.

So Blackwell revealed that he opposes abortion even when a woman's life is in danger.

And Petro said he opposes it even in cases of rape.

And Blackwell announced he would not allow abortion even if a woman were impregnated by space aliens.

And Petro said he is against even Diane Keaton's character having an abortion in The Godfather Part II.

And on and on.

Blundo also criticizes Blackwell's recent adds for pointing out the proverbial 800 lb gorilla in the room. Contra-Blundo voters don't forget dishonesty. If Blackwell and the GOP do not condemn the chicanery in Congress and Ohio and provide solutions to the problems, voters will reward the party-in-power with early retirement.

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Law Devastates Democrats

Here's some new information the AP posted this morning about the Strickland's (D - 6th) gaffe (via Lexis-Nexis):

Key Democratic House candidate in Ohio doesn't qualify for ballot

by David Hammer

National Democrats' best hope to hold onto a key U.S. House seat in Ohio failed to collect enough signatures to qualify for the party primary. The Columbiana County elections board ruled Wednesday in Lisbon, Ohio, that state Sen. Charlie Wilson had only 46 valid signatures on his petition for candidacy, four shy of the 50 he needed to qualify for a key race.

"In good faith, I submitted more than enough valid signatures to the board of elections, so I am obviously disappointed with this decision today," Wilson said. "I am exploring a number of options and am confident that, in November, I will be on the ballot and I will win the privilege and responsibility of representing Ohio families in Congress."

The ruling is potentially devastating for Democrats in an Appalachian seat that had been a stronghold but has been targeted by national Republicans as their best chance to pick up a seat. Popular Democratic incumbent Rep. Ted Strickland is leaving to run for governor and Democrats had thrown their support behind Wilson....

On the Net:

Charlie Wilson campaign: http://www.charliewilson.com

Bob Carr campaign: http://www.bobcarr.org

**Update: Jack Torry of the The Columbus Dispatch has a similar take.

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Strickland suffers defeat

The AP is reporting that Charlie Wilson, the man picked by Democrats to replace outgoing Ohio representative Ted Strickland (D - 6th), failed to get enough valid signatures to enter the primary. The final tally was 46 valid, which is 4 short of the required 50.

This means that in the 2006 Congressional Elections, the GOP will probably pick up Ted Strickland's seat. The law being what it is, Wilson could in a Rube Goldbergian way still find himself running in the fall election as either a Democrat, Independent, or write-in.

This is Strickland's first major gaffe and does not present his organizing skills in a positive light. If this is how his staff helps friends, I wonder how he will work with his enemies? Furthermore, if Strickland stumbles so badly over something so simple as gathering 50 signatures, it does not appear that will be able to manage the state bureacracy or pass laws.

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Walking into Doors

Blackwell's adds have hit their mark. He is getting all kinds of free press from Bennett's statement, Taft's reaction, Petro's delayed statement, National Review's reaction, and free press mentionings.

Blackwell opens a door for his opponents and they walk right into it. His adds aim to separate him from Petro, Taft (approval rating 16%) and the Ohio GOP. Taft, Bennett, and Petro willingly did just that.

Petro's misleading statement about the whole voting machine problem, which stems back to Bush v. Gore in 2000, fails to take into account this long story here, wherein Blackwell was about the only Ohio politician laboring to fix the system.

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Blackwell's adds

Ken Blackwell has new ethics-themed anti-Petro adds out: He produced a 30-sec TV add and a 60-sec radio add. Joe Hallett on page A1 of the Columbus Dispatch's Feb 21st edition gathered together the GOP reaction.

Governor Taft's spokesman criticized the adds as "smear tactics". Ohio GOP chair Bennett issued a statement denouncing the adds as "attack adds", "burning down the house", " negative campaigning", having no "respect for winning on ideas and vision", "guttural politics" and "politically motivated".

Being the subject of the attack, Petro's spokesmen made the obligatory retort lambasting the adds as "the most deceptive and vile... ever" & "lies." His media response can be found, well, it can't because Petro is not running any response adds. This non-response answer will harm Petro.

Blackwell stood firm and kept his cool. He not only described Petro as "a clear and present danger to the health and well-being of the Ohio GOP ticket," but also that his modus operandi during the campaign would be "I believe... pursuing a path of truth."

Notice that neither Taft nor Bennett describe the adds as false. That is important becaue it means that the adds are true.
I think the adds were too strong and that until Petro is indicted, the message should be "Petro: just another Taft clone:" and "Do really want another four years of Taft?" After all, once the anti-Taft sentiment has been burned up in the primaries, Blackwell might be unable to use the state's contra-Taft feelings in the fall's general election.
I always think that political adds are as much satirical humor as verity, taking enjoyment in a fine production of either party.

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Hamilton's Endorsment

On Feb 10 the GOP of Hamilton County (Ohio's soutwestern most county & home to Cincinnati) voted overwhelmingly to endorse Blackwell for Governor. Read more about the event and Petro's weak presentation here.

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Reagan's unlikely heir

The profile that started it all is available at the City Journal. Steve Malanga paints a colorful portrait of Reagan's unlikely heir, who bills himself as "Jesse Jackson's worst nightmare":

I am not just an economic being. I have a wider set of beliefs that I follow. With me, you’ll always know what you are getting. You’ll always know where I stand.

This detailed biography maps out Blackwell's life as follows:

Born in the projects of Cincinnati to a meat-packer who preached the work ethic and a nurse who read to him from the Bible every evening, Blackwell has rejected the victimology of many black activists and opted for a different path, championing school choice, opposing abortion, and staunchly advocating low taxes as a road to prosperity.

Read about the raging opposition, both GOP and DNC, as well as the hard road he has traversed, is traversing and will traverse on the path to a Republican primary victory.

One note of criticism: Malanga leaves out any mention of Blackwell's Gold genes; but you alredy knew that having read this blog.


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A Blackwell tidal wave

*Update* the e-mail address is up and functioning.*

**Sorry to have been away for so long but various fires on the homefront, i.e. finances, family, and church used up any available time I had. Now that the financial clouds have broken, there will be more time for blogging. Thanks for your patience.**

First our favorite candidate, Mayor Coleman (pictured below), has withdrawn from the race. We really are sorry, because the Mayor was Bill Clinton with political mojo and without the personal scandals. Vale Amice Coleman, Vale. It would have been so, so fun. We take credit for providing the pressure to make him drop out.
Instead, Ted Strickland (below left) has shot his way to the front of the Democratic pack.
Blackwell, meanwhile has surged in the polls and is receiving accolades from the conservative press:

1. George F. Will analyzes how the GOP's hopes rest on Blackwell's conservativism.
   
2. Kathryn J. Lopez, editrix of National Review Online, briefly profiles Blackwell as Jesse Jackson's worst nightmare;
3. Jay Nordlinger of NRO (sub req) bets on A horse of different color;
4. Nordlinger glance at Blackwell in this Impromtu;
5. John J. Miller of NRO (sub req) remembers A Taft too far; and,
6. W. James Antle III's of NRO offers a solution to Taft's ethical problems
7. Matt Lewis of Human Events Online notes Blackwell's smooth-as-silk campaign
8. John Gizzi of HEO mentions Blackwell's conservative running-mate Tom Rega
9. Thomas Sowell over at Townhall.com warns Blackwell about hand-wringing conservatives.
   
10. Robert P. Bluey editor of HEO blogs about Blackwell's iconic principles.

This is but a partial listing of the many articles featuring Blackwell.

More evidence of a Blackwell swell accumulates from the fact that Betty Montgomery has dropped out of the governor's race citing money and too many attack adds, and that Petro's running mate, Phil Heinlich, begged off to run for his same seat. A recent GOP-sponsored poll has Blackwell leading Petro 40% - 30%

Blackwell should surf to easy victory in the GOP primary.

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