Blackwell's poll surge?

An Aug 29 - Sept 5 Zogby Interactive online poll showcases JKB as surging. While the Rasmussen Report said that Blackwell was getting walloped 57 - 32, Zogby has JKB losing 47.5 -41.8. This represents a 20% change in position, +10% for JKB and - 10% for Strickland. If true, then JKB has roared back and the poll does not even consider his commanding debate victory.

However, Zogby's interactive online polls have a somewhat questionable methodology and lack the accuracy of his phone polls. Most people figure that he uses these polls as interregnum popularity measures, i.e, between his phone polls he needs the media attention and a way toe set himself apart from JKB. Thus, the poll could be surveying white collar business types who have greater access to the Internet. Business votes (R) more so than (D), so the result could be expected.

Regardless, the polls deserve watching because Blackwell seems to be heading upward.

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More Blackwell victory

Steve Hoffman's post-debate commentary in the Sept. 8 Akron Beacon Journal merits consideration. He basically claims that debates have become so scripted and boring that he would rather have one candidate wildly accuse the other of secretly hiring homosexual sympathizers (see 1986 & Republican Rhodes' accusation of Democratic Celeste ). That part of his article can be ignored, since infamous campaigns differ from intense, involved campaign, but the part examining the debate has value. Hoffman criticizes that

[t]he candidates for governor stuck to the script, with Democrat Strickland bashing Republican Blackwell, Ohio secretary of state, for being part of a corrupt "Taft-Blackwell" administration.

Lame-duck Republican Gov. Bob Taft has some of the worst poll numbers ever seen. But he and Blackwell, while both Cincinnati Republicans, come from very different wings of the party. Mostly, the conservative Blackwell has given the moderate Taft a pain in the neck. But Strickland knows the charge will be effective in a year of growing discontent with all things Republican.

Blackwell went after Strickland, a six-term U.S. House member from Lisbon, by cherry-picking his votes on taxes, a common tactic. Blackwell is trying to hang Strickland as a tax-and-spend liberal, continuing a line of GOP attack on Ohio Democrats that began in 1984. Strickland avoided specifics on his plans for the future (which would invite a GOP cost analysis) and repeatedly denied that he would raise taxes if elected governor.

Blackwell succesfully rebutted TS' charges that Blackwell is part of Taft and Hoffman notes that. TS however never rebutted Blackwell's charges that TS voted some 50 times to increase taxes. TS' next re-rebuttal, that he voted four times to decrease tax-burdens on middle class families, was successfully swatted down by JKB's other semi-official blog, http://www.TelltheTruthTed.com.

This leaves JKB accuracy oints ahead and as having won the first debate.

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Debate followup:Blackwellian (update)

JKB has a new education ad up at YouTube (HT Right Angle Blog). I don't know if the ad is especially ground-breaking, but I love the fact that the add works for my 56K modem, downloading video and audio in a snap. I'm such a sucker for any political add, which is why McCain-Feingold bummed me out. There is nothing like Sept/Oct when each new ad labels the opponent as the spawn of rats. Oh well, the add is smooth and flows nicely, explaining the positive. it answers my criticism of their post-debate press releases.

It's possible I erred earlier in claiming the JKB Blog delayed its summary of the debate. I've been having some issues with Mozilla Firefox and its cache update each time I visit a site, and so have to hit refresh. Their detailed post explanation of Ted's tax record helps clear the air of TS issue warping.

The Club for Growth gives TS a zero rating and ONN nails Ted in a YouTube video for being a liberal rather than the moderate he claims to be.

The Ballot Box decisively evidences that JKB won the debate. Too bad JKB didn't claim such in the debate, but rather called it a first punch. Actually the important thing for the candidates to remember for the fourth debate is not to have the debate at noon or 1.

BB begins the post by noting " [h]aving had a chance to read about and review from today's [Ohio] gubernatorial debate...". The post time is 10:30 at night. This means that he and the other pundits were busy doing other things, and so only a few (Nix-guy) could live-blog the debate. Everything else was review, even on Sixers and The Corner. By the time of most posts, the usual after-work and after-school chaos drowned out the noise.
Somebody better tell the candidates, this is it, boys. It's all there is. This race is not the same race for state SOS or AG. This ain't a sweet potato(e?) - red potato(e?) kerfuffle. Throw your chips in and steam ahead. Like my old high-school cheer went
Stand up, be proud, say your name out loud, "I'm JKB, and here's where I stand."

Evening debates between 7 - 9 work the best, since the day's errands are done and many families are relaxing, thus allowing them to do the thinking required by the debates. Midday Cubbies and Tig's games play well to audiences, but that's because the blue collar worker can buy tickets, listen and still work, leave and stay up-to-date, get updates at break, etc... The while the white collar worker can buy box seat tickets, talk to the blue collar guys, switch the radio earpiece for the office phone's earpiece and still seeem to be working. Plus day games for MLB last three, not one hour.

Of course since JKB got first-sentence play fromthe AP, it means that he won big time. Strickland's second-fiddle status tried to link JKB & Taft, but failed since it's well-known that JKB strongly criticized Taft for increasing the sales tax.
JKB also focused the leadoff and first 1:30 of Ohio's Public Radio on taxes and Strickland's no-new-taxes-pledge. (Real Player).

In the end Blackwell dominated throughout, including his humurous one-liner at the end about the Springer-Taft relationship.

Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.

Debate 1 held today (updated) JKB winning

The first debate between Strickland/Blackwell was held today at noon in Youngstown, OH, on an open topic. The WFMJ 21 news has a complete video of the event. (HT - Right Angle Blog)
Click on the Ohio News Network for a summary. The Headline

- Ohio Governor Candidates Argue Over Stands on Taxes -
favors JKB, since it lets the public know that JKB fought Taft's tax increases. The headline also puts Strickland on the defensive, since it gives wind to JKB's claim that Strickland plans to increase taxes. Furthermore, this tax exchange took place between minutes 9 - 15 out of the one hour debate. Thus a so-called neutral party votes for the (R) candidate.

The Cinncinati Enquirer Blog has a summary, repeating some of what's here. Their part about the protesters causes some humor, with important parts about taxes.
The Ballot Box analyzes the race in depth and it too focuses on the tax angle, pointing out that Club For Growth gave TS a rating of 0, worse than Nancy Pelosi.
TV Station WFMJ21 also focuses on the taxes angle, though they leave out Strickland's lack of pledge.
The State of the Union Blog also has numerous stories on Tax'n Ted and their failure to deny the truth of TS' tax increases.
Tune in on the 6th for tax and other analysis from the Blackwell v. Strickland blog.
The Nixguy.com blog also favors the taxes issue going to Strickland, with Strickland wilting under the big lights
Nixguy.com helpfully live-blogged the debate and the fashion show.
The Openers blog of (Cleveland) Plain Dealer busts TS for focusing on the way past of the wacko left netroots who try to blame JKB for throwing Florida 2000 to GWB. Uhh Ted, the talking points are devil-faced Katherine Harris selected rather than elected the President. They miss the taxes angle.
No other S.O.B. blogger posted anything on the debates by Tuesday midnight. Will post more as time allows and others catch up.
Negatively: A Townhall.com search of the blogs using the words Ohio and Blackwell produced no recent results, and nothing at all about the debates.
The Sixers blog entitled their brief summary of the debate Strickland - Brown debate coverage, though the follow up info gets JKB's name right and says that the latter man won. Perhaps as a make-up post Greg Pollowitz explains about JKB's and TS's use of YouTube and MySpace as well as telling about Blackwell's new blog www.TelltheTruthTed.com.
Pick a newspaper and they'll say the match was a draw: translation - the (R) candidate won. Remember the '92 presidential campaign when Bush stared at his watch and Perot was too short for the stool. Those were Clinton's big victories. Nothing here, which means JKB won round one.
Actually, the noon debate was payed attention to by very few, including those in the blog world. Too bad the debate was good.

Briefly: JKB said Strickland will raise taxes and TS said I'm the change & JKB = coingate + Taft.
The candidates debated the Iraq war, but ONN said nothing about it. Why not say anything about it, especially when the national security issue hurts (R) candidates and helps the (D) ones. Maybe, because Strickland lost that part of the debate too.
ONN is going to replay the debate @ 11 p.m.

Here is JKB's summary.
The salient items of his post are

• When asked to directly answer if he would pledge not to raise taxes, Strickland avoided the question.
• An angry Strickland, acting like a second-grader, commented that Blackwell’s ideas were bad and his were good.
• Strickland could not answer a question on how much money from the state budget he would direct to specific proposals.

Here is TS's summary.
Focusing on spurring economic growth, improving the state’s education system while lowering college tuition costs, and expanding access to affordable health care, Strickland laid out a positive agenda for change.
While Strickland emphasized returning honesty and accountability to state government after the corruption scandals that have plagued Columbus, Blackwell insisted he should not be lumped in with the failed Republican leadership he has been a part of for the last 12 years. But Blackwell’s actions speak louder than his words: he still refuses to release his tax returns, even though Republican gubernatorial candidates for the last 35 years have done so.

TS's Blog also has a summary rebutting JKB in all four debates already, a bit premature shall we say.

JKB's Blog delayed publishing a post and then seemed to do the opposite of Strickland, by putting in the informatin that focused only on taxes. Too bad, a larger post would have provided a more effective megaphone to sway public opinion.
Both blogs could have linked to their press realeses or put up the information on the website that they handed out at the debate.

Props to JKB for a short summary and accurately noting that TS hasn't give monetary values for his proposals.
TS helps himself by summarizing his agenda, but is very short on specifics. He also in calling Blackwell the establishment candidate. JKB was not, but Taft was.

Both candidates attack each other and spend as many words on negative as positive. Gotta love press releases, I mean really, they could be served at local fairs as stand-ins for cotton candy, since both are pure fluff and a harmful energy jolt. In the end the taxes issue will resonate with the Ohio voter.

Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.

Labor Unions buy Strickland

And, in the "Mankind dies without Oxygen" type of headline, the Dayton Daily News posted a Sept. 4 story reporting that Labor Unions have thus far unanimously endorsed Ted Strickland. They have particulary supported him with their money, giving him nearly $700,000 in contributions, which equals about 8-9% of his total 8.5 million collected. The paper errs, saying that TS collected only $6.2 million.

The paper tries to criticize JKB by noting that he has not garnered any union endorsements while Taft did in 2002, but a different article notes that union membership roles are declining. This means JKB supports employment that increases jobs and wages, i.e., WalMart etc..., while TS supports business practices that go the way of the railroads, i.e, very few working at a very high pay-scale.

Interestingly Ohio has tried to enact right-to-work laws that don't demand union membership as a condition to employment. The unions hope this law departs to the political equivalent of hell. Yet the Supreme Court allows for conscientious objectors: employees who still pay union contributions, but do not partake of contract negotiations, yet they can't be fired for doing something different than the union. Another version of conscentious objectors allows both sides to decide to contribute the dues to an agreed-upon non-profit group.

IN the end, JKB has not followed the way of tax-increasing Taft & Strickland, but his own way to keep taxes low.

Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.

Strickland's poor leadership

There are more doubts about Strickland's leadership. Phillip Morris, associate editor of the (Cleveland) Plain Dealer's editorial page, sums up in 604 words, his page B9, August 29 op-ed by querying,

[w]ho really cares whether Strickland voted against a constitutional amendment that defined marriage as a union between a man and a woman? The far greater issue is, can the man lead? And on that score, he remains a mystery - and vulnerable, despite his lead in the polls
Strickland has yet to evidence anything approaching talented, senior-level leadership, either in his past or in his current uninspired and timid campaign for governor.
The way he has acquiesced to the Blackwell camp in the arrangements of debates, as well as his failure to advance a single original, creative solution to the myriad problems vexing the state, make him look like a back-of-the-packer who somehow ended up at the front of the herd.

Actually, the Ohio state voters cared in 2004 when over 60% voted for a constitutional ammendment that banned gay marriage and consequently wounded judicial activism. Hence Strickland can't lead and remains an adversary to Ohio's socially conservative voters.

Again, there is also the 'lowered expectations' bar here, so that if Strickland shows any show of leadership the press can trumpet his improvements. Yet, another theme at work here is the worries about Strickland's leadership issues.

JKB by contrast remains in-step with Ohi0's socially-conservative voters.

Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.