Blackwell demolishes Petro

Blackwell is beating Petro 39% - 28% with 33% undecided. The A.P. published the Columbus Dispatch's mail-in poll of 2,874 Republican and 2,894 Democrats, all of whom were Registered Voters. The margin of error is 2%. The full poll also looked at the remaining races.

There are problems with the poll. First, polling Registered Voters is less accurate than likely voters.
Second, there are no idependents and the poll should be changed to reflect reality: about 35% (R), 35%(D), and 30% Ind. Third, a phone poll, not a mail-in survey, is more accurate than a mail-in poll when it comes to measuring accurately the voting trends. At home a potential voter can wait and wait, whereas on voting day as on the phone the decision is split-second: I choose candidate A. A voter has minutes, not days to complete a ballot. Change these three characteristics and the sentiments of the voters will be more accurate. The poll is a Good star tbut be wary about reading too much into it. The Dispatch also defended its techniques. There is more statistical stuff for poll-wonks
Blackwell's almost insurmountable lead is a main reason why he will not debate Petro. Plus he is keeping his powder dry until the last few weeks of the season. Plus the voters already know who is the conservative candidate and who is a RINO.

( l-r) Ted Strickland(D) and Bryan Flannery(D) lunch with Jim Petro(RINO) at the Canton Forum on Wed 3-22-06. (courtesy Daniel Hockensmith of Kent State's 89.7 WKSU)
*Note: File is large @ 616 KB

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Lyn Nofziger dies

Lyn Nofziger, conservative stalwart and Ronald Reagan aide, died today, Mon., March 27 2005 in Falls Church, VA. He was 81 or 71.
Read more in Lynn's obit.
HT: NRO's corner - K.J. Lopez

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Presenting: Your Democratic nominees

Jim Petro sure hints that he wants to bolt into the waiting arms of Democratic party. Wanting to be Republican as opposed to being conservative is one thing, but not even wanting to be with the Republican party is quite a different thing, and a bad one at that.

Here is photographic evidence: ( l-r) Ted Strickland(D) and Bryan Flannery(D) lunch with Jim Petro(D) at the Canton Forum on Wed 3-22-06. (courtesy Daniel Hockensmith of Kent State's 89.7 WKSU)
*Note: File is large @ 616 KB

This is almost as bad a photo as this C-Span photo of Debbie Stabenow's "Dangerously Incompetent" gaffe.

Oops. She just lost the election. And so did Petro!

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NCAA seeds

*Update: Lessons learned from the tournament:
a) The state of Ohio laid an egg - no team made it past the 2nd round.
b) The Big Ten totally sucked it up - see above. RPI is no help
c) My final 4 was UConn, UCLA, Duke, Boston College.
d) Ignore the East Coast hype - Duke has gone to the last 9 Sweet 16's only to lose 5 out of the last 7.
e) Iowa blows chunks.
f) Should seen that B.C. would lose to a very athletic 'Nova team.
g) Shoulda been seduced by the 4 MVC teams in the tourney, not the six Big 10 teams.
h) your one-stop for the NIT.

Here's a Big Dance bracket:

Because there is more to life than politics, we present the following analysis of team prospects for March Madness Bracketology. Ohio could get 2, maybe 3 teams into the tourney. If a few more win their tourneys than look for better representation in the NCAA's, else the remaining 5 - 7 teams will be in the NIT.

If I missed any teams let me know. We have also put in Strength of Schedule rankings,

• Team Name - Record - RPI stuff - Schedule - Tourney seed
  

1. * Ohio State Univ (24 - 5) #5 - .6400 - 25 - # 2 Minneapolis at large
2. beat #15 Davidson 70 - 62
   
3. lost to #7 G-town 52 - 70
   
4. Cinncinati Cats (18 - 12) #41 - .5895 - 5 - NIT
5. * Kent State Uni (24 - 8) #48 - .5804 - 113 - # 13 Oakland - won MAC
6. lost to #5 Pitt 64 - 79
   
7. Akron Univers (21 - 9) # 70 - .5604 - 159 - NIT
   
8. * Xavier Univers (21 - 10) #79 - .5534 - 106 - #14 Oakland- won A-10
9. lost to #3 Zags 75 - 79
   
10. Miami of Ohio (18 - 10) #83 - .5498 - 138 - NIT
    
11. Ohio University (18 - 11) #99 - .5384 - 139 - low NIT seed
    
12. Toledo Univer (19 - 11) #148 - .5072 - 247 - possible NIT
13. Wright State U (12-15) #180 - .4866 - 160 - nothing
14. Dayton Univer (13 - 17) #183 - .4835 - 112 - nothing
15. Cleveland State (8 - 18) #245 - .4523 - 148 - nothing
16. Bowling Green (7 - 21) #254 - .4474 - 142 - nothing
    
17. Youngstown St (6 - 21) #304 - .4035 - 243 - nothing
    

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TEL issues

The 3/21/05 Akron-Beacon Journal editorializes about JKB's TEL. The first paragraph coorectly summarizes the TEL's thrust, but the 2nd-paragraph's analysis strikes out. The editorial reads,

Blackwell's amendment would reduce budgeting at all levels of government to this formula: a spending increase of 3.5 percent a year or the rate of population growth and inflation, whichever is greater. To go beyond those limits would require voter approval.

That sounds reasonable enough. But from 1996 to 2005, actual rates of state spending exceeded the TEL limits in all years except 2003. In most years, because of low inflation and low population growth, the TEL limit would have been set at 3.5 percent.

Gov't spending is bad. Gov't spending below 3.5% is good. Remember that Voinovich-Taft raised Ohio's state Tax burden to 3rd in the country because high spending required more taxes to pay for it. Knowing of this high tax burden, people fled the state. Had the high tax-rates been low, the income-earners would have stayed, had familes and then gov't spending would have gone higher. If health care spending becomes too high, make gov't employees pay a co-pay. That is what happens the real world.

The one problem with TEL is it's Keynesian rebates. The rebates should permanently lower either the state sale's tax rate or income tax-level by .5% - 1%. This would be a supply-side tax-cut.

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Oh, So Close

The web-site's First Pinocchio Award Winner , James P. Trakkas has dropped out of his political race. He will no longer be Secretary of State. We express our disappointment that this blog was not mentioned as the reason. Apparently we are not ornery enough.

Goes to show: we know how to pick 'em.

There are thus far Five Pinocchio award winners.

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Desperate Petro whines for debates

Read the Associated Press (AP), Dayton Daily News (DDN), Cleveland Plain Dealer (CPD), and The Columbus Dispatch (TCD) to get the impression that Blackwell is runnin' real scar'd of Petro by refusing to debate him publicly. The CPD put Reginald Field's 552-word article on page A1 of its Friday 3/24/06. The DDN put the William Hershey's 436-word article on page B1 of its Friday, March 24, 2006 edition. TCD seems to have placed Joe Hallet's 340-word article on its website but does not in its paper. The AP's 222-word links Blackwell with rejecting the non-partisan City-Club (via Lexis-nexis).

Contra these publications, the money quote in DDN comes from John Green, political scientist & head of Akron University's Bliss Institute of Applied Politics -

There's very little to gain from a debate and there's always a possibility they'll make a mistake and give the other candidate a chance to get back in (emphasis added).

The CPD has more quotes from Green:

Whatever candidate is behind tends to want debates because it gives them a chance to score points and catch up... Front-runners tend to want to avoid debates because there isn't enough to gain... And the perception is that [Blackwell, CPD] is ahead (emphasis added, EIC).

Neither the TCD or AP quote Green or any other authority. Thus they leave out the fact that Petro is L-O-S-I-N-G. TCD was the only paper to note that the debate-request came some time before March and Petro had desperately accepted by March 3. The stories leave the impression that Blackwell changed his mind, but JKB's no is his first public utterance on the matter.

Keep in mind Blackwell's endorsement by Miami County's grass-roots voters in the open primary.

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Black Conservatives: almost persuaded.

Claude Allan is a black conservative traitor, writes Erin Aubry Kaplan in the LA Times (free reg. req.), and he stole because he's black. Expect Blackwell to get the same treatment from the media.

Eugene Volokh dstroys the barely-concealed racism of Kaplan. Kaplan's piece inadvertently lets the world know that she is just another patronizing liberal.

Eugene Lindgren examines the number of black conservatives and concludes that the number is around 30% - 45%. He also reports that blacks are social, but not economic, conservatives. The key stas come at the end of the article. Lindgren writes

In general, however, African American conservatives seem to be somewhat more like other African-Americans than like other conservatives, but things vary a lot depending on the issue. Indeed, 57% of African American conservatives report being Democrats, compared to only 10% who view themselves as Republicans. Another 4% of black conservatives are independents who lean Republican.

Almost persuaded. When the number of blacks who vote for a Republican increases to 15% - 20%, then one can claim that there are black conservatives. Economic Conservatives, Foreign-policy conservatives, and judicial conservatives will need to vote for the GOP. Right now the socially conservative blacks are not voting (R) but (D). This means the number of black conservativism is limited, since conservativism is both intellectual and measurable by voting-habits. Blackwell is the best hope to inspire blacks to change their votes.

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Top Dem Stafferet indicted

Here's what happens when a Republican who is conservative and black runs for office.
The Washington Post hides the following Thur 3/16/06 story of John Wagner on page B4: Lauren B. Weiner, a staff member for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Comittee (DSCC), will be indicted by federal prosecutors for fradulently obtaining the credit report of Maryland's Lt. Gov Michael A. Steele.

Ms. (Mrs.?) Weiner got the document while doing opposition research on Mr. Steele. The Republican Steele is running to replace retiring Democrat Senator Paul Sarbannes, co-sponsor of the economically bad, and post-Enron legislation Sarbannes-Oxley. The law has not only increased accounting & auditing costs for public companies but also discouraged foreign compines from paying the entry fee to list on the NYSE. They list instead on London's stock exchange.

Do not be surprised if the same to happen to Blackwell.

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More small government

Mark Noe of the Columbus Dispatch writes an article both for and against the privacy of public records. The article posits the thesis that Montgomery's audit records of the Noe-BWC-coin scandal should be public as opposed to their current law-protected, private status.

Read for another reason why government is not the solution but the problem.

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Blackwell: a Petro-clone?

Peddling influence seems to be a way of life in Ohio: first former speaker Householder; then Taft; next Petro; and, now Blackwell??

JKB accused Petro of shakedown techniques on Feb 20 by alleging that after Petro fired some anti-Petro law firms because they would not contribute to his campaign, he turned around and gave the work to firms who had contributed $1.6 million to him. Blackwell claimed that his own campaign had never accepted money from these no-bid contracts, but that if his own campaign did, his own campaign would return the money if Petro went first.

Two days later in a "published report" Blackwell changed his story and said that he had received some money but that it was without Petro's arm-twisting technique. Some 22 days later on March 12th Mark Niquette of the Columbus Dispatch reported on page A1 that Blackwell's contributions came to $102,300 dollars since 1999.

The story also criticizes Blackwell for having spent more than a million dollars contracting out un-bid contracts. This is old recycled news. The only new facts are that Blackwell spent x dollars between n different contractors, while other politicians have spent y dollars between m different contractors.

Sadly for the tax-payer No-bid contracts are standard government practice. That the practice wastes tax-dollars is true enough, but that this way of business is limited to Blackwell is not. Thus, Blackwell's TEL ammendment is needed in order to starve the government of its pork

The story wants you to believe that Blackwell's past claims are more of the soap-box variety, rather than the high moral ground type. Both this story and the AP summary ignore that Blackwell revised his absolutist position "I never took contributions" two, that is 2, days later. The only new facts are how much Blackwell received.

The Dispatch doesn't seem to have posted the story to its website yet. More to follow as links appear (via Lexis-nexis). The story will be overshadowed by March Madness.

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CQ analyzes Ohio Left

We're a bit late, but back on January 16, 2006 Congressional Quarterly analyzed Ohio, and said that things were down for the Ohio GOP and up for the DNC. The reasons were Abrahamoff lobbying scandal, Taft golf convictions and GOP apathy which caused a Democrat almost to win.

They looked at the governor's race, the senator's race and Ney's congressional seat and came up with this quote

“"So you have all of these things working together, and I believe that leads some Democrats to say that now is the time to take on a Republican,"” said Herb Asher, a political scientist at Ohio State University.

The article make this telling point about why conservatives might stay home for DeWine's Senate race:

1. He votes against Pres. Bush 24% of the time; 4th worst.
2. He votes against the G.O.P. 30% of the time; 5th worst.
3. He was part of the infamous gang of 14.

Contrary to the main point of the article, the author points out

• that all the Democrat-funded initiatives in the 2005 election failed,
• that the party of the Donkey raises less,
• that the GOP has a way better GOTV drive, and
• that the DNC has a poorer organization skill in running the state itself.
• Oh, yeah and that the Dems control a mere 6 of the 18 House Seats,
• don't have a U.S. Senator,
• don't hold a major state office,
• don't control the State House,
• don't control the State Senate and,
  
• don't have a positive plan for the voters
  
• But they do have the MSM on their side.

Republicans will have to work for their victory, which Blackwell can accomplish owing to his conservative agenda, credentials and record. His adds are successfully separating him from PetroTaftNoe. There was no new information about Blackwell's race.

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Obeying the law

Ken Blackwell wants to give away your private information!! This charge is what the Democrats hope will stick, when it comes to the SSNs on Blackwell's SoS website.

As Blackwell has pointed out, the option to put the numbers on their was voluntary. However, most people were responsible and kept the SSN off the form. Banks and other financial institutions took the option and put that number on. With responsibility and choice comes consequences; the money businesses should not have put the number on.

Ohio's Senate and House are rightfully looking to change the law with the biparitisan Senate Bill 283 requiring that no public record may have an SSN on it. One reason why is the Ohio GOP is no doubt hoping to avoid political fallout from invasion of privacy. Let us also hope they want to stop privacy invasion.

That the SSN would be private and never public was the promise of FDR back during the introduction of Social Security. I think it should be federal law the SSN shall never be on any application, and that its use requires permission ala private medical records that doctors and hospitals want to see.

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Uniting the party of Lincoln

The Pitsburgh Post-Gazette has another article how the GOP is reuniting the party of Abraham Lincoln. There is a profile of Pensylvannia's Lynn Swann, Maryland's Michael Steele, Ohio's Jenette Bradley for state Treasurer, and of course JKB.

There is no new information, just a note that Blackwell labelled Petro as having "ethics worse than Taft's."This means that Blackwell's message is sinking in.

Then today Betty Montgomery complains about and compliment JKB because his adds have sucessfully thrown Petro off-message. On page D9 the Columbus Dispatch records her lamenting not only that surprise, surprise, liberal/moderate Republicans aren't liked that much, but also that

I will never underestimate Ken Blackwell's strategic sense. He has kept Jim Petro off-message with these ads. Jim can't talk about what he wants to be because he is defending who he is.

Two things need to be kept in mind. First, the Noe-BWC scandal and GOP-ethics questions aren't going anywhere. This issue will return with a vengance by the DNC, and will be a potent anti-Republican weapon, unless the problem is fixed now. JKB's adds are accomplishing such a task now.

Second, the "mean" election will by forgetten by the time of the fall election season. The party will be united for the reasons that the primary is on May 2 which is four months before electio season; the unifying state convention has yet to be held; and, a whole summer will make many people forget about the spring campaign. Time heals all wounds.

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Newsweek's Clift 'Claven' misses the boat

Elanor Clift, Newsweek columnist, rows left again. She writes a left-leaning article that recycles the same ol' DNC talking points: The race is the Dems to lose; GOP is anti-gay; Blackwell is a bible-thumper; etc...

Read more of Clift "Claven's" article on the MSNBC website.

And of course Blackwell gets criticism for leaving the DNC plantation:

His political rivals are looking for ways to expose him as a black Elmer Gantry, a huckster with no core convictions.

Clift's article has merit as far as writing style goes. She puts every relevant fact in except for the most recent Petro-lawyers-FBI investigation. Her article sparkles and shows that Ohio's political life is very vibrant right now. Take, for example, the fact that she notices how Blackwell's conservativism contrasts with "a more traditional Republican in Ohio Attorney General, Jim Petro." Do Ohio's voters really want an establishment Republican, a RINO or Taft-lite?

She weakly concludes by shrugging out of a conclusion, leaving the final choice up to Ohio's voters. She is another no-decision liberal who writes in code, i.e. throw Blackwell out.

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Fairfield Co. endorses Blackwell protege

Fairfield County (SW Central Ohio) has endorsed Blackwell supporter Steve Elsea for County Commissioner. The County also reprimanded sitting commissioner Mike Kiger by labelling him "not recommeded."

Mary Beth Lane of the Columbus Dispatch, D7, provides this brief biography of Elesea:

Elsea is a Canal Winchester resident who owns an energy-management business, is on the county GOP executive committee and is county chairman for Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell's gubernatorial campaign.

Knowing of Elsea's extra-curricular activies the County still approved of his candidacy. The Blackwell grassroots support grows.

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Shakedown Part I.

I hadn't wanted to get into this whole ménage à trois of Petro-lawyers-FBI. It seemed to belong unto the more boring aspect of campaigns, the mud-slinging type, wherein each side plays the little boy's game of one-upmanship: you're a meany; you're a double meany head; ... you're a meany head infinity x infinity with a cherry on top. But there is much here.

Blackwell's TV adds alledge that the FBI is investigating Petro's supposed shakedown of some lawyer firms who refused to contribute money to his campaign.

Well, on Feb 21 in the Cleveland Dispatch'spage A1, Joe Hallet reports (via Lexis Nexis)

Last week, a spokeswoman for Petro acknowledged that he had stripped $2 million in annual legal work from three Akron-area firms aligned with Summit County GOP Chairman Alex Arshinkoff, an avowed Petro enemy. An Akron lawyer close to Arshinkoff, Jack Morrison, has accused Petro of threatening to terminate a state contract with his firm if Morrison didn't pony up campaign cash. Petro denied the allegation and argued that it is part of an Arshinkoff vendetta. The FBI has made inquiries into Morrison's allegation.

The threats allegedly came in 2003, when the firms had refused to contribute to Petro's attorney general campaign.

Then it turned out that Blackwell gave $225,000 in unbid contracts to a lawyer (fee $175/hour), who is also suing Miami of Ohio university on behalf of State Rep. Tom Brinkman, a Blackwell insider, for providing benefits to same-sex couples in violation of the recently passed marriage ammendment. Brinkman is suing as a private citizen, since he has two children who attend there. Blackwell also asked the State's Controlling Board for $50,000 more to pay a lawyer who dealt with Blackwell's 2005 petition drive.

At the same meeting Petro asked for and received approval for $2.06 million, the millions mentioned above.
Petro then accused Blackwell of having payed $831,967, 161% more than Taft's $503,701 bill, for his terms as SOS for outside work. No mention is made of course about the very contentious 2004 election as well as Blackwell's attempt to get HAVA 2002 made into a federal statute. This law shuttled $125 million+ in federal aid to Ohio.

Of course the Attorney General's office paid $31.9 million in FY2005 as compared to $26.9 million FY 2002, the last year Petro was not in office. Petro blamed Blackwell.

New documents show that Akron's top lawyer told Petro that ceasing to do business with Arshinkhoff's firms, a Betty Montgomery appointee, would cost "unnecessary taxpayer dollars" and be an "undue hardship." Petro persisted.

And now we are where we are today. Petro is innocent until proven guilty, but he has at least steered business toward his friends, and not so much against his foes. Sniping at Blackwell I understand, but at Montgomery I don't. He comes off as a bit prickly in this whole affair.

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More Blackwell groundswell

As reported by the Cleveland Plain Dealer, the GOP State Central Committee will not publicize a straw poll of committee members showing a gargantuan Blackwell victory, 51 - 16. The poll breaks down this way: first, there is a 40-11 approval of the Blackwell/Petro ticket, rather than Petro/Blackwell ticket; and, 11 favored Blackwell alone, while 5 favored Petro alone.

The fallout is that the president of the NE Ohio region quite because the executive director, Chris McNulty, whose wife is a fundraiser for Jim Petro, commanded that the results from being published. President Karl Raszewski charged

"If Chris had . . . let everyone see the results, Petro would have likely left the race within 48 hours."

Bennett, his spokesmen, McNulty, and his spokesmen also denied the charges. Factor in Blackwell's lead in the GOP primary polls, his endorsement from Miami's open primary and his other endorsements, and an Ohio voter can only conclude that Blackwell will win in a tough GOP primary.

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