Blackwell gaining in polls
The Dayton Daily News and AP promote a recent Unniversity of Cinncinati-sponosored poll that shows Blackwell gaining in the polls. This poll of 698 registered Ohio voters has Strickland leading 50 - 44 with 7% undecided/other and a 3.7% margin of error.
Both news networks err in two ways: First No numbers were given about how the poll was weighted, i.e., were there more (R), (D) or (I) voters; and second, neither story mentions that during the primary season JKB trailed TS by 12 points. Blackwell is moving up and it has only taken him about one month.
Plus, polls of registered voters are unreliable indicators of the final outcome. They generally favor (D) over (R), so perhaps JKB is closer than the poll indicates. Regardless of its accuracy, the poll does not help the candidate of either party. The poll was written to fill up column space.
The DDN spotlighted William Hershey's 5-26 story on page A4 and Julie Carr Smyth's AP story was posted at 5:10 pm EST.
update: NPR's Ohio edition gets it right, when Jo Ingles reports on Blackwell's gain (Real Player req). She does not however list by how many he has gained.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.
2 comments:
Strickland 57 Blackwell 32
biggest lead yet
Thanks for responding with the facts (kinda) and without ranting at that. It's nice to read some actual educated opinion from the left rather than Bush=Hitler stuff.
However, your response made on Aug 29 fails to treat the fact that I posted my analysis on May 27, some three very long summer months prior to your rejoinder.
I do not deny that JKB trails TS by double-digits in the polls, yet three months before the Rasmussen Poll, which you have here cited, Blackwell was gaining. Hence, my late May post was correct in its analysis of that time frame. You are correct to point out the fact, that indeed my late May post does not apply to late August, but I never made such a claim either.
FYI, this rejoinder was made on Sept. 4
Thanks again
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