Best Easter Message ever seen on the road sign of a church/school:
FUNERAL CANCELLED.
HE IS RISEN!
Presenting: results from race for Rep. Duke Cunningham's 50th District seat
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JKB leads JP by a 46% - 32% margin, with 22% undecided says a Survey USA poll. The margin of error is 4.8% The T.V.-station-sponsored vote surveyed 436 Likely (R) voters and found that JKB leads in every
age group,
income bracket,
region and
urban/suburban/rural section.
He leads in the
Conservative vote,
male vote,
any college vote
graduated college vote and
post-college training vote.
He trails by
1% in the chick vote, and
4% in the no-college education vote.
Petro wins the moderate and liberal GOP vote. In order to have the slightest change at victory, Petro must win 18 of every 22 (80%) independent voters to have even the smallest chance of pulling ahead. Since the independent usually splits between 50-50 and 70-30 one way or the other, Petro is pretty well doomed. A 66 - 23 split leaves Petro losing by a 53 - 46 margin.
SurveyUSA's methodology convolutes its poll techniques in a phrase only a poll-junkie could love
In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy.
Translated into plain English this means that 95% of the time, the poll is 100% accurate, within the margin of error. 5% of the time, Daffy Duck might win.
Here's, instead, to hoping for a Bugs Bunny/Donald Duck dream ticket. Bugs is a character, which a President needs to be, and Donald is the perfect VP: he's less prone to rage than Daffy, more prone to hard work and a family man at that since he mentors his 3 nephews Huey, Dewey, and Louie.
Please e-mail the Editor-in-Chief with any questions.A new Democrat Poll shows Maryland Republican, Michael Steele, getting as much as 44% of the black vote in his run for the US Senate seat of Maryland's Paul Sarbannes.
When Steele is matched up against a generic DNC candidate, he gets 22% of the black vote, and in the '02 election he received 13% of the vote. In all three cases he is trending ahead of GWB by 2%, 11%, and 33%, respectively.
The WaPo got a copy from the Democrats. The number of those polled was 489 but no margin of error was mentioned. Watch for more of the same to happen in Ohio. Almost persuaded, but the trending is hopeful.
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Tonight the Cleveland Indians take on the ChiSox in the opening game for MLB.
I predict the Indians will lose by a score of 6 - 4. The SouthSiders have added a pitcher and JimThome as a slugger. Since Thome played so long for the Indians, he will be motivated both to beat his old team and having spent most of his career hitting AL pitching, he will play like a fish-in-water.
Keep uptodate on live Flash updates at ESPN or CBS. (Javascript required)
CBS has a way better setup. ESPN blows in MLB scoring
Wacky predictions:
1) One fan will be arrested for streaking.
2) Illegal Immigrants will riot.
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Blackwell is beating Petro 39% - 28% with 33% undecided. The A.P. published the Columbus Dispatch's mail-in poll of 2,874 Republican and 2,894 Democrats, all of whom were Registered Voters. The margin of error is 2%. The full poll also looked at the remaining races.
There are problems with the poll. First, polling Registered Voters is less accurate than likely voters.
Second, there are no idependents and the poll should be changed to reflect reality: about 35% (R), 35%(D), and 30% Ind. Third, a phone poll, not a mail-in survey, is more accurate than a mail-in poll when it comes to measuring accurately the voting trends. At home a potential voter can wait and wait, whereas on voting day as on the phone the decision is split-second: I choose candidate A. A voter has minutes, not days to complete a ballot. Change these three characteristics and the sentiments of the voters will be more accurate. The poll is a Good star tbut be wary about reading too much into it. The Dispatch also defended its techniques. There is more statistical stuff for poll-wonks
Blackwell's almost insurmountable lead is a main reason why he will not debate Petro. Plus he is keeping his powder dry until the last few weeks of the season. Plus the voters already know who is the conservative candidate and who is a RINO.
( l-r) Ted Strickland(D) and Bryan Flannery(D) lunch with Jim Petro(RINO) at the Canton Forum on Wed 3-22-06. (courtesy Daniel Hockensmith of Kent State's 89.7 WKSU)
*Note: File is large @ 616 KB
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Lyn Nofziger, conservative stalwart and Ronald Reagan aide, died today, Mon., March 27 2005 in Falls Church, VA. He was 81 or 71.
Read more in Lynn's obit.
HT: NRO's corner - K.J. Lopez
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Jim Petro sure hints that he wants to bolt into the waiting arms of Democratic party. Wanting to be Republican as opposed to being conservative is one thing, but not even wanting to be with the Republican party is quite a different thing, and a bad one at that.
Here is photographic evidence: ( l-r) Ted Strickland(D) and Bryan Flannery(D) lunch with Jim Petro(D) at the Canton Forum on Wed 3-22-06. (courtesy Daniel Hockensmith of Kent State's 89.7 WKSU)
*Note: File is large @ 616 KB
This is almost as bad a photo as this C-Span photo of Debbie Stabenow's "Dangerously Incompetent" gaffe.
Oops. She just lost the election. And so did Petro!
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*Update: Lessons learned from the tournament:
a) The state of Ohio laid an egg - no team made it past the 2nd round.
b) The Big Ten totally sucked it up - see above. RPI is no help
c) My final 4 was UConn, UCLA, Duke, Boston College.
d) Ignore the East Coast hype - Duke has gone to the last 9 Sweet 16's only to lose 5 out of the last 7.
e) Iowa blows chunks.
f) Should seen that B.C. would lose to a very athletic 'Nova team.
g) Shoulda been seduced by the 4 MVC teams in the tourney, not the six Big 10 teams.
h) your one-stop for the NIT.
Here's a Big Dance bracket:
Because there is more to life than politics, we present the following analysis of team prospects for March Madness Bracketology. Ohio could get 2, maybe 3 teams into the tourney. If a few more win their tourneys than look for better representation in the NCAA's, else the remaining 5 - 7 teams will be in the NIT.
If I missed any teams let me know. We have also put in Strength of Schedule rankings,
The 3/21/05 Akron-Beacon Journal editorializes about JKB's TEL. The first paragraph coorectly summarizes the TEL's thrust, but the 2nd-paragraph's analysis strikes out. The editorial reads,
Blackwell's amendment would reduce budgeting at all levels of government to this formula: a spending increase of 3.5 percent a year or the rate of population growth and inflation, whichever is greater. To go beyond those limits would require voter approval.
That sounds reasonable enough. But from 1996 to 2005, actual rates of state spending exceeded the TEL limits in all years except 2003. In most years, because of low inflation and low population growth, the TEL limit would have been set at 3.5 percent.
The web-site's First Pinocchio Award Winner , James P. Trakkas has dropped out of his political race. He will no longer be Secretary of State. We express our disappointment that this blog was not mentioned as the reason. Apparently we are not ornery enough.
Goes to show: we know how to pick 'em.
There are thus far Five Pinocchio award winners.
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Read the Associated Press (AP), Dayton Daily News (DDN), Cleveland Plain Dealer (CPD), and The Columbus Dispatch (TCD) to get the impression that Blackwell is runnin' real scar'd of Petro by refusing to debate him publicly. The CPD put Reginald Field's 552-word article on page A1 of its Friday 3/24/06. The DDN put the William Hershey's 436-word article on page B1 of its Friday, March 24, 2006 edition. TCD seems to have placed Joe Hallet's 340-word article on its website but does not in its paper. The AP's 222-word links Blackwell with rejecting the non-partisan City-Club (via Lexis-nexis).
Contra these publications, the money quote in DDN comes from John Green, political scientist & head of Akron University's Bliss Institute of Applied Politics -
There's very little to gain from a debate and there's always a possibility they'll make a mistake and give the other candidate a chance to get back in (emphasis added).
Whatever candidate is behind tends to want debates because it gives them a chance to score points and catch up... Front-runners tend to want to avoid debates because there isn't enough to gain... And the perception is that [Blackwell, CPD] is ahead (emphasis added, EIC).
Claude Allan is a black conservative traitor, writes Erin Aubry Kaplan in the LA Times (free reg. req.), and he stole because he's black. Expect Blackwell to get the same treatment from the media.
Eugene Volokh dstroys the barely-concealed racism of Kaplan. Kaplan's piece inadvertently lets the world know that she is just another patronizing liberal.
Eugene Lindgren examines the number of black conservatives and concludes that the number is around 30% - 45%. He also reports that blacks are social, but not economic, conservatives. The key stas come at the end of the article. Lindgren writes
In general, however, African American conservatives seem to be somewhat more like other African-Americans than like other conservatives, but things vary a lot depending on the issue. Indeed, 57% of African American conservatives report being Democrats, compared to only 10% who view themselves as Republicans. Another 4% of black conservatives are independents who lean Republican.
Here's what happens when a Republican who is conservative and black runs for office.
The Washington Post hides the following Thur 3/16/06 story of John Wagner on page B4: Lauren B. Weiner, a staff member for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Comittee (DSCC), will be indicted by federal prosecutors for fradulently obtaining the credit report of Maryland's Lt. Gov Michael A. Steele.
Ms. (Mrs.?) Weiner got the document while doing opposition research on Mr. Steele. The Republican Steele is running to replace retiring Democrat Senator Paul Sarbannes, co-sponsor of the economically bad, and post-Enron legislation Sarbannes-Oxley. The law has not only increased accounting & auditing costs for public companies but also discouraged foreign compines from paying the entry fee to list on the NYSE. They list instead on London's stock exchange.
Do not be surprised if the same to happen to Blackwell.
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Mark Noe of the Columbus Dispatch writes an article both for and against the privacy of public records. The article posits the thesis that Montgomery's audit records of the Noe-BWC-coin scandal should be public as opposed to their current law-protected, private status.
Read for another reason why government is not the solution but the problem.
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Peddling influence seems to be a way of life in Ohio: first former speaker Householder; then Taft; next Petro; and, now Blackwell??
JKB accused Petro of shakedown techniques on Feb 20 by alleging that after Petro fired some anti-Petro law firms because they would not contribute to his campaign, he turned around and gave the work to firms who had contributed $1.6 million to him. Blackwell claimed that his own campaign had never accepted money from these no-bid contracts, but that if his own campaign did, his own campaign would return the money if Petro went first.
Two days later in a "published report" Blackwell changed his story and said that he had received some money but that it was without Petro's arm-twisting technique. Some 22 days later on March 12th Mark Niquette of the Columbus Dispatch reported on page A1 that Blackwell's contributions came to $102,300 dollars since 1999.
The story also criticizes Blackwell for having spent more than a million dollars contracting out un-bid contracts. This is old recycled news. The only new facts are that Blackwell spent x dollars between n different contractors, while other politicians have spent y dollars between m different contractors.
Sadly for the tax-payer No-bid contracts are standard government practice. That the practice wastes tax-dollars is true enough, but that this way of business is limited to Blackwell is not. Thus, Blackwell's TEL ammendment is needed in order to starve the government of its pork
The story wants you to believe that Blackwell's past claims are more of the soap-box variety, rather than the high moral ground type. Both this story and the AP summary ignore that Blackwell revised his absolutist position "I never took contributions" two, that is 2, days later. The only new facts are how much Blackwell received.
The Dispatch doesn't seem to have posted the story to its website yet. More to follow as links appear (via Lexis-nexis). The story will be overshadowed by March Madness.
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We're a bit late, but back on January 16, 2006 Congressional Quarterly analyzed Ohio, and said that things were down for the Ohio GOP and up for the DNC. The reasons were Abrahamoff lobbying scandal, Taft golf convictions and GOP apathy which caused a Democrat almost to win.
They looked at the governor's race, the senator's race and Ney's congressional seat and came up with this quote
“"So you have all of these things working together, and I believe that leads some Democrats to say that now is the time to take on a Republican,"” said Herb Asher, a political scientist at Ohio State University.
Ken Blackwell wants to give away your private information!! This charge is what the Democrats hope will stick, when it comes to the SSNs on Blackwell's SoS website.
As Blackwell has pointed out, the option to put the numbers on their was voluntary. However, most people were responsible and kept the SSN off the form. Banks and other financial institutions took the option and put that number on. With responsibility and choice comes consequences; the money businesses should not have put the number on.
Ohio's Senate and House are rightfully looking to change the law with the biparitisan Senate Bill 283 requiring that no public record may have an SSN on it. One reason why is the Ohio GOP is no doubt hoping to avoid political fallout from invasion of privacy. Let us also hope they want to stop privacy invasion.
That the SSN would be private and never public was the promise of FDR back during the introduction of Social Security. I think it should be federal law the SSN shall never be on any application, and that its use requires permission ala private medical records that doctors and hospitals want to see.
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The Pitsburgh Post-Gazette has another article how the GOP is reuniting the party of Abraham Lincoln. There is a profile of Pensylvannia's Lynn Swann, Maryland's Michael Steele, Ohio's Jenette Bradley for state Treasurer, and of course JKB.
There is no new information, just a note that Blackwell labelled Petro as having "ethics worse than Taft's."This means that Blackwell's message is sinking in.
Then today Betty Montgomery complains about and compliment JKB because his adds have sucessfully thrown Petro off-message. On page D9 the Columbus Dispatch records her lamenting not only that surprise, surprise, liberal/moderate Republicans aren't liked that much, but also that
I will never underestimate Ken Blackwell's strategic sense. He has kept Jim Petro off-message with these ads. Jim can't talk about what he wants to be because he is defending who he is.
Elanor Clift, Newsweek columnist, rows left again. She writes a left-leaning article that recycles the same ol' DNC talking points: The race is the Dems to lose; GOP is anti-gay; Blackwell is a bible-thumper; etc...
Read more of Clift "Claven's" article on the MSNBC website.
And of course Blackwell gets criticism for leaving the DNC plantation:
His political rivals are looking for ways to expose him as a black Elmer Gantry, a huckster with no core convictions.
