Close, but no cigar

Ahh, to have George Burns' victory cigar right now. Alas, it appears that Fred is locked into 3rd. This is not the knockout blow of which he spoke. The best case scenario would be that Huckabee implodes in bitterness over Fred's campaign, e.g., Howard Dean. The MSM picked up on the Huck lost thread.

Of course, then Fred would be going back on his word, which would make him no different from the rest of (R) pack of candidates. Of course, neither has he won any races, which Romney has done in WY, NV, & MI. Part of the reason was the too-packed-too-close-together-primary-system. Fred should have started earlier and got his fire going sooner. He just started too late, which means that he was his own problem in the end.

Now, some are saying Fred for Veep. Sounds like an echo.

Better than expected?

CNN puts Freddy-Mac in 3rd, while NRO's Jim Geraghty waxes eloquent on the seeming limits of Fred's appeal. NRO's Campaign Spot talks about some limits on Fred's Success, however turnout will be better than expected. Fred still looks good.

Newsday's Tom Brune quotes University of South Caroline analyst Ben Glease saying "I still think things are quite fluid." The article states the usual CW

Still, the race here by most estimates is between McCain and Huckabee, each hoping to add to their momentum. If one of them wins, he will get a boost into Florida... But the stakes are highest here for Thompson. After a string of disappointing results in the earlier primaries, Thompson, a former Tennessee senator and one-time great conservative hope, bet his candidacy on this state.A third or lower finish could, in effect, finish his hopes, possibly leading him to quit. "I think he needs a win or show," Graham said.

Turnout will probably put Fred into 2nd, at best.

Poll Variables

The Clemson University Palmetto Poll (.pdf) claims McCain leads and Fred's 4th. It has many weaknesses.

1st: it has about a 5% margin of error.

2nd: about half (46%) said they may change their minds during the last 24 hours.

3rd: 17% are still undecided.

4th: the sample size was not “likely voters,” but really only weakly registered (R) voters: “Respondents were chosen… if they voted in at least one of the past four (R) primaries.”

Even the final sentence from Clemson reads, “We find a very liquid environment in the state and the race still subject to change.” The race is wide-open, though the statistical accuracy of this poll and others shows that Thompson may charge up to 2nd.

Huckabee freefall

The Huckster seems to be dropping fast. First RCP's SoCo poll avg has him as the only candidate dropping in the polls for the last week. Second, he is making anti-Thompson push-poll phone calls. Third, he just flip-flopped on Amnesty by signing an Anti-amnesty pledge, oh so very late in the primary game.

His poll numbers may be worse than they seem. Otherwise, he is trying some bareknuckle campaining tricks to test the mettle of his opponents.

Engergy Independence

On CNN Fred talked about the US economy and pushed for a fuel position that keeps us from Saudi caterwauling. His view is that

It's not in the United States' long-term interest to go hat in hand begging people to do things that in the end we know they're not going to do... What we need to concentrate on is diversifying our own energy sources here in this country and opening up what oil reserves that we have here [in places such as ANWR, edited out by Reuters], using nuclear more, using clean coal technology more and all the other things that we can do, [including research, instead of going hat in hand to these OPEC countries, edited out by Reuters]. (via Lexis-Nexis)

Note the omissions of ANWR and entreprenurialship. Fred does not seem to say that we need to drill in offshore oil rigs, and make more domestic refineries. Unless that is what Fred meant by "opening up what oil reserves that we have here in places such as ANWR.

Give me cheap gasoline. Refineries and drilling platforms would be a good start.

Fred Slowing

According to Zogby & Clemson University it appears as if Fred might only make it to 3rd place in SoCo. Right now he is in a statistical dead heat with Romney for 3rd. Considering that Zoby tends to understimate (R) voters and conservatives, then Thompson might do better in SoCo.

RCP's poll avg. put's Thompson rising again, but near Mitt Romney. Thompson may rise high enough to make a surprise 2nd. However, it appears as if conservative voters are split between Romney, Huckster, and (R) guy.

In good news, Thompson wins the Instapundit Straw Primary by a wide margin, 65 - 14. He wins the Pajama Media's Straw Primary by the same margin, 63 - 13.

Looks like Fred's best chance is to go for Veep. It would fit well with his laid-back style.

The Yard Sign Argument

All this talk of Fredmentum reminds me of the old argument that many callers make to talk radio hosts: There are bunches of political and presidential signs in my neighborhood supporting the candidate. I just know he will win. The problem is that sector will vote strongly for the guy, but not many other sectors will. This does show that there is passion for (R) guy

To begin Peter Robinson transcribes 6 awesome e-mails in the Corner showing how Fred has the Big Mo'. One e-mailer reports

I took with me a friend who was contemplating voting for Mike Huckabee. After the rally my friend simple said WOW! I confirmed he is now voting for Fred.

The only somewhat down e-mail says that the rallies are bigger, but that all smiles are fake. This is all a step forward, and might get him to 2nd place. Another e-mail reports great excitement, but GA was the home-state of the e-mailer. Did many others do the same? Again, this is another step forward.

Event the NYT grudgingly admits of the MO' for Fred. The Corner takes note.

In hard dollars, Fred's goal of 540K, has been blown away. The Red Truck reports breaking the 1 Million-Dollar Amount.

Prof. Bainbridge points out that Fred is not in last place when (R) candidate are run against Hillary or Obama

Fred even sounds the conservative and Christian theme to be charitable yourself and not rely on guvmint so much on the guvmint to do all your work.

Fredmentum - TM

Looks like news of Fred is getting out. Track that to the date when this blog endorsed Fred for POTUS in IA.

Human Events endorsed Fred Thompson for (R) nominee. As they say,

The Club for Growth has praised Thompson as someone who has a strong commitment to limited government, free enterprise and federalist principles... [We say h]e is solidly pro-life. He said that he was in favor overturning Roe v. Wade because it was “bad law and bad medical science... Thompson’s record is solid on voting to preserve gun owners’ rights, cut taxes, reduce government spending and drill for oil in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. He has voted consistently against gay marriage.”

Their article also lists his limitations in regards to Clinton impeachment, McCain-Feingold, and pro-trial lawyers.

Now The New York Republican Party endorsed Fred. The state is not exactly a conservative Bastion, (e.g., Rudy G. Michael B., and George Pataki), but it’s a start. Favorite Son Rudy gets a fistful of nada. Maybe because Rudy’s biggest backers were always the Media.

Fred has raised the stakes in SoCo, claming he is “drawing the line”. Go ahead Fred: Rage Against the Machine© or at least, start sounding Conservative themes. He also claims he is going to “draw some contrasts” in the next debate. That should scare the other Republicans, who will hear the hoof-beats of the Legend of Sleepy Hollow behind him. He already started at the last debate. How will Mitt do so? Show that he has changed the most??

While Fred’s YouTube opponents apologize to him, his supporters Blogburst over Fred’s stated goal of 540K. Fred then shows that Huckabee lacks conservative credentials.

In actual news, Fred’s campaign e-mailed that they had to shut the doors to potential voters at a campaign stop in SoCo.

Fred is also a potential hunting partner of VP Cheney, and gives the good ol' stink-eye to taxes.

Way back, on Nov. 13, 2007 National Right to life endorsed Fred Thompson (.pdf).

If the conservatives have truly fallen in love with Fredoso, then look for a swarm of articles and columns in the next week. The same happened with J. Kenneth Blackwell during Ohio’s gubernatorial election. One week they all seemingly portrayed him as a knight in shining armor. Sadly, the result was that his numbers stayed the same: horrible, as in the 35’s through voting day.

You al$o pu$h a few coin$, Fred'$ way: donate to Fred08.