Poll Variables

The Clemson University Palmetto Poll (.pdf) claims McCain leads and Fred's 4th. It has many weaknesses.

1st: it has about a 5% margin of error.

2nd: about half (46%) said they may change their minds during the last 24 hours.

3rd: 17% are still undecided.

4th: the sample size was not “likely voters,” but really only weakly registered (R) voters: “Respondents were chosen… if they voted in at least one of the past four (R) primaries.”

Even the final sentence from Clemson reads, “We find a very liquid environment in the state and the race still subject to change.” The race is wide-open, though the statistical accuracy of this poll and others shows that Thompson may charge up to 2nd.