Strickland's Trojan horse lead

The AP's recent election analysis of Ohio contradicts the claim that Strickland is the man to beat and his lead will put the Dems back into office. In short his candidacy is a Trojan horse for the Dems and Ohio's voters: a seemingly nice gift with great numbers that will be slowly picked apart during political battle. His own internal problems, congressional record and vision for Ohio, will be the soldiers that harm him.

Peruse the websites of Ted Strickland and Jim Petro and you'll soon discover that both men are ahead of Blackwell in the Polls, Strickland by 12% and Petro by 2%, respectively. Strickland even titles his article that way, thus ignoring Mr. Petro as a viable GOP candidate.

However, the WCPO-9 article points out that very few people know Strickland's name. Democtratic political consultant Jim Ruvolo sketches out the field this way,

"Ask 10 people about Strickland around the state and you're going to get nine blank stares."

With this honest election assessment, the following conclusions can be drawn:

1. Strickland's lead is soft since much of his lead is from an anti-GOP bounce in the polls.
2. Democrats are united around anybody who might be a winner, especially since they have not won a governor's race in 20 years and controlled the mansion in 15 years. Governor Richard Celeste last won in 1986 and his term ended January 14, 1991.
3. Governor Taft has an approval rating of 16% and is disliked so much that in the Bob Portman-special election his bad ratings almost gave the election to Paul Hackett, an anti-Iraq War candidate. He was even booed off the stage way back Sept, 2004 when he made a brief appearance with GWB's swing through the state.

Once the general election begins Stricklands's negatives will increase and positives decrease. Consider that he has so little name recognition even after being in office since the GOP split their '92 vote between Bush-Perot,and it becomes clearer that people flock to him for reasons other than his policy positions. They like him because he is not-GOP, not-Taft, and the Dems have been not-governor for so bloomin' long.

Strickland's other problem arises in conjunction with the fact that his many terms in office will provide ample opportunity for opposition research to drive up his negatives, down his positives, and cost him the governor's race.

The Dems may take his gift as titular head of the Ohio Dems, but this present will be a Trojan Horse harmful to them and Ohio's voters.

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